Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

by Simon 656 Replies latest jw friends

  • Finkelstein
    Finkelstein

    I think taking precautionary distancing is still the best route to go until more information is acquired about what effects this virus can have with people that have preexisting health issues such as asthma, heart problems, diabetes.

    I do think a vaccine will be available for this virus within a couple of months due to the fact there are an enormous amount of clinical institutions that are working on a vaccine right now, dramatically more so than any other contagious virus to date.

    Lets keep are fingers crossed.

  • FedUpJW
    FedUpJW

    I guess I am pretty dense. How, exactly, will testing be the answer? If I were to test negative today, be exposed to someone tomorrow who spreads it to me, then what? To my way of thinking testing would only genuinely help if EVERYONE got tested simultaneously, and then every single person with a positive test were placed under extremely strict house arrest with zero contact with the outside world, for however long it took to herd vaccinate every single person who tested negative. Somewhere, somehow, sometime, someone is going to get sick from this virus, and IMO that is just a fact of life.

    And NO, I am NOT saying there is no concern or this is a hoax or any of that other garbage, so don't even go there!

  • FatFreek 2005
    FatFreek 2005

    If Covid-19 is not a live virus, then how can you kill it?

    It looks as if you can physically and mechanically remove it from your skin by washing. However, it then proceeds into the drain and eventually the sewage system.

    If it's not live, then what mechanism makes it inert?

    Does spraying public places help -- and how -- if it's not alive?

    See the source image

  • JimmyYoung
    JimmyYoung

    I thought it was a strange coincidence that there was a weapons lab right near the supposed wet market where it started. China needs to pay for this one way or the other.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/state-department-cables-coronavirus-origin-chinese-lab-bats

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/leaked-cable-shows-us-officials-flagged-safety-issues-at-wuhan-lab-years-ago
  • Simon
    Simon
    Are you saying that such countries are merely postponing the inevitable? Any data on that?

    Most countries have done too little too late, they allowed initial early spread when there were few cases and the growth seemed slow, but it's exponential so by the time people realize it is a problem, the time you could have done something about it was 2-3 weeks earlier.

    It's a bit like "what's the best time to plant an Oak tree"? The best time is 20 years ago and the next best time is right now.

    I don't think you can come up with any scenario where the countries that have had a lot of deaths would have had fewer if people hadn't tried to limit the spread at some point.

    I do think a vaccine will be available for this virus within a couple of months due to the fact there are an enormous amount of clinical institutions that are working on a vaccine right now, dramatically more so than any other contagious virus to date.

    Lots of vaccines fail clinical trials - not all are dangerous, they may just be ineffective. There's a reason the process takes as long as it does and you can't make a baby in a month, even if you group 9 women together (although I'm willing to take part in any research, LOL).

    We hope there will be a vaccine and it will be soon, but there's no way we can confidently say it'll be here with a couple of months.

    How, exactly, will testing be the answer?

    The quicker and easier it is to test people, the easier it is to stop the spread - instead of having someone going round inadvertently spreading it, you can prevent it. That helps lower the R0, or the rate that people are infected. If you get it below the higher number, which I think is 3 (?) then it slows the spread. If you get it below 1 then it dies out (fewer people are catching it than have it at that point).

    People will have more confidence to go to work etc... if widespread and easy testing is available but lowering the rate is the key benefit. Testing allows for targeted isolation rather than "isolate everyone because we can't know who does and doesn't have it".

    It looks as if you can physically and mechanically remove it from your skin by washing. However, it then proceeds into the drain and eventually the sewage system. If it's not live, then what mechanism makes it inert?

    I believe that the soap breaks down the structure of the virus. It happens naturally as it is exposed to the sun, elements etc... and the time it can be active on different surfaces varies (up to days on some).

    It's interesting that copper has natural anti-viral qualities and was what used to be used on hospital doors. That piece of genius seems to have been forgotten and now we have surfaces perfect for keeping it infectious - brilliant! Always use your elbow or knuckles to open or push things - it's all about limiting the chance that you touch something that has the virus on it and then touch your face afterward.

    If you have a delivery or go shopping, you can either wipe things down with disinfectant or you can just leave it for a few days, or both (belt-and-braces).

    If you are getting a meal delivery that is in something that the virus can live on the surface of (e.g. plastic containers), then empty the food onto a plate, then dispose of the packaging and wash your hands (the full 20 sec thorough deal) before eating and that should be OK.

    Just try to be methodical and think about the order that you touch things in and that should dramatically cut down the chance of picking something up even if it happens to be there.

    Does spraying public places help -- and how -- if it's not alive?

    I think that's all for show. Unfortunately, some people need to be "scared" into accepting rules such as social distancing - it's likely for them.

  • Diogenesister
    Diogenesister
    . although they really don't appear to be under much strain - many are less busy than usual and nurses have time to do dance routines for social media posts. In fact, the few times I've been in hospitals they have never looked busy - it's always lots of people sat around chatting, never like the TV shows.

    yes funny my brother was recently in Addenbrookes and he said he’d never seen it so quiet. The ward was practically empty.

    cancelled elective surgery notwithstanding, I think it goes to show how many consultations are not necessary, in particular many casualty and GP visits. Lets be honest all know someone among that minority who repeatedly badger their doctors unnecessarily!! (having said that I don’t doubt there are folks with serious conditions not attending when they should)

  • cofty
    cofty
    Interesting, Cofty. Are you saying that such countries are merely postponing the inevitable? Any data on that? - FF

    Countries that locked down very early and very hard such as Denmark are likely to have a relatively small population who have been exposed. When they open up - as they are about to do now - they might find they have no option but to go through the same pain that France, Italy Spain and to a lesser degree, the UK are in the midst of.

    How, exactly, will testing be the answer? FUJ

    Random antibody testing of the general population will show what percentage of the country has been through covid19 already and are unlikely - or less likely - to be reinfected. That allows decisions to be made about opening up again. Once 60% or so are immune the virus will spread much more slowly with an R0 well below 1. Combined with testing of people with new symptoms, and tracing of contacts, new flare-ups can be suppressed. Phone apps will probably be part of the equation.

    This is how South Korea have dealt with the pandemic because they had the resources from day 1 having been hammered previously by MERS. No doubt every country will be doing similar preparation for future Chinese pandemics (it will happen again)

    If Covid-19 is not a live virus, then how can you kill it? - FF

    It is a parcel of RNA wrapped up in a lipid membrane. It is not technically alive as it can't reproduce outside of a host cell. Once the membrane breaks down the DNA is destroyed. Soap and water - or just time - destroys the membrane. It cannot pass through your skin but will pass easily through eyes, nose and mouth. So wash your hands, forget about gloves and wash your hands.

    An alternative - favoured by SBF is to completely lock down until a vaccine or an effective treatment is available. A vaccine is 12-18 months away. A treatment may be a few months to a year away if an existing drug can be repurposed. So far potential candidates have failed.

    No economy can afford more than a few months. Economic collapse costs many lives.

  • 2+2=5
    2+2=5

    The WHO is supporting the reopening of Chinese wet markets, apparently it creates essential employment.

    We’ve already been condemned for another SARS, MERS or Covid20 outbreak, only next time it’s potentially far worse.

    We should thank the WHO for their wisdom and courageous leadership

  • waton
    waton

    The wet markets in Asia and the equally bad smelling (where the work is being done) senior homes in the western world, both breeding places for this half alive killer.

    A big reform is needed in western elderly care. It was a big mistake to make it a for profit enterprise, but also funded by the tax payer. Then have these corporations dismiss professionals and have contractors come in to provide the health, caring services. Contractors that in turn saw only the bottom line and drove down wages, served many locations with the same personell, spreading the infection from ones institution to the others.

    Elder care should not be industrialized, but again become a family affair, that work rewarded.

    starve the viruses, the parasites, not the care providers.

  • Anony Mous
    Anony Mous

    @waton: typically elder care was done by the family. This changed dramatically when women started entering the workspace, suddenly it became necessary for 2 people to go to work in a family, because prices were being raised accordingly.

    We need to go back to a nuclear family with grandparents at home and at least one parent only part time working. It benefits everyone, it reduces all sorts of spending and pollution.

    The other alternative is to truly make healthcare in the US a free market. Right now everything is largely controlled and paid for by the government, which, as has been proven, makes things a lot worse. Unions on top of regulation is a recipe for services to start using contractors and temp workers which don’t fall under said regulation. In countries where private healthcare is an open market such as the EU (typically because public healthcare is a disaster), many seniors opt to stay at home and have healthcare come to their house. It’s expensive and not every senior can afford it because they also have to pay for the public option, but many seniors will have sufficient funds to afford it, they have pensions, paid off their house and no major expenses. In the US, you can’t even start those businesses because of regulations.

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