bohm
It is estimated that it would take 10X10^21 mutations to get
five condons to mutate in the right order.
1)
Just for my own sake, how do you compute this number?
The calculations for chimp to human I do not have at this
time.
Below is the probability of producing a 150 amino acid molecule. That is
50 codons. The numbers below surpass the probability of 10^21
To construct even one short protein molecule of 150 amino
acids by chance within the prebiotic soup there are several combinatorial
problems – probabilistic hurdles- to overcome. First, all amino acids must form
a peptide bond when joining with other amino acids in the protein chain. If the
amino acids do not link up with one another via a peptide bond, the resulting
molecule will not fold into a protein. In nature many other types of chemical
bonds are possible between amino acids. In fact, when amino acid mixtures are
allowed to react in a test tube, they form peptide and none peptide bonds with
roughly equal probability. Thus, with each amino acid addition, the probability
of it forming a peptide bond is roughly ½. Once four amino acids have become
linked, the likelihood that they are joined exclusively by peptide bonds is
roughly [1/2]^4. The probability of
building a chain of 150 amino acids in which all linkages are peptide linkages
is {1/2}^149, or 1 chance in 10^45.
Second in nature every amino acid found in proteins [ with
one exception] has a distinct mirror image of itself, there is one left handed
version, or L form, and one right handed version, or D form. These mirror image
forms are called optical isomers. Functioning proteins tolerate only left
handed amino acids, yet in abiotic amino acid production the right handed and
left handed isomers are produced with roughly equal frequency. Taking this into
account further compounds the improbability of attaining a biologically
functioning protein. The probability of attaining, at random only L amino acids
in a hypothetical peptide chain 150 amino acids long is [1/2]^150 or roughly 1
chance in 10^45. Starting from mixtures
of D and L form the probability of building a 150 amino acid chain at random in
which all bonds are peptide bonds and all amino acids are L form is, therefore,
roughly 1 chance in 10^90.
Amino acids link together when the amino group of one amino
acid bonds to the carboxyl group of another. Notice that water is the byproduct
of the reaction. [Condensation reaction].
Functional proteins have a third independent requirement,
the most important of all, their amino acids, like letters in a meaningful
sentence, must link up in functionally specified sequential arrangements. In
some cases, changing even one amino acid at a given site results in the loss of
protein function. Moreover, because a there are 20 biologically occurring amino
acids, the probability of getting a specific amino acid at a given site is
small 1/20 [actually the probability is even lower because in nature, there are
also may none protein forming amino acids.] On the assumption that each site is
a protein chain requires a particular amino acid, the probability of
attaining a particular protein 150 amino
acids long would be [1/20]^150 or roughly 1 chance 10^195. 1chance in 10^195.
2)
How does this number disprove evolution? (what
is the full argument as to why this computation shows Humans and Chimps do not
have a shared ancestor)
Following the computations. If the
difference between a chimp and a human is 15 million codons, and it takes 10^21
to mutate 5 codons, what is the total probability when we include the other 14,999,995
codons. It is an impossibility. When applying comparative anatomy we do see similarities, but on the genetic level there is a huge gap, that makes evolution an impossibility.
