LMsA: Even if he gains 30 patrons by the end of the month, roughly an equal amount are exiting.
Yep. He is no longer building a subscriber base; he is trying to stay ahead of the downward trend. The best way to deal with such a problem is to work harder and produce better content on a strict schedule, and make sure your supporters feel as if they are getting their money's worth.
Or, you know... take a two-week vacation and then complain that you're too tired to fulfill the monthly obligations your supporters paid real money for. You know... the money that you can spend however you please. Nothing will motivate a paying customer like delivering less than you promised while spending a couple of weeks on the beach.
I'm not worried that he has a small uptick in Patreon subs so soon after the beginning of the month. He needs to work extra hard in order to stem the bleeding. But he doesn't want to work, and he resents that his paying supporters have the nerve to expect something from him. The trend will continue downward. We just need to watch and wait.