No matter the candidate, the massive center "No Party" independents will need to be swayed.
"HIGHLIGHTS
- As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.28%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
- A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.35% of registered voters in these areas.
- A total of 32.5 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 27.67% of registered voters in these areas.
- Approximately 4.3 million registered voters identified themselves as members of other political parties. This amounted to 3.7% of registered voters in these areas."
https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters