I don't have evidence, but i would like to quote this garybuss post from another thread regarding the acceptance of the UN mess:
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This is a group that actually thrives on adversity and disconfirmations. The Witnesses people actually seem immune to fact and reason.
It boils down to costs and benefits. What will it cost them to stay? Nothing! What will it cost them to leave? A LOT!
There is already a HUGE number of reasons to leave and those don't bother THEM. In my opinion the UN issue is much less of a problem than the change in the promised reward that occurred in 1995. They lost the "generation of 1914". They lost the "other sheep". They lost the "great crowd". Basically, they lost the promise they were all working for.
Their strong rigid beliefs were replaced by mush in 1995. Their leaders quit in 2000. The religion was divorced from the parent corporation in 2000. The writers say they don't know much of anything. The demands on the members are raised. None of this has an effect on people who like being Witnesses. In my opinion, nothing will.
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"This Generation" change -- fallout evidence?
by reagan_oconnor 53 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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Quotes
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Leolaia
I think if you look at the rate of growth of the JWs, there has indeed been a general slowdown since 1995, tho it prolly exascerbated a longer term deceleration in growth since the 1980s.
To the best of my ability I have compiled together the stats for average publishers from 1945-2004 for a historical view of trends. I have coded the percentage increase by color, so that the most rapid increase is closest to the blue part of the spectrum and the least rapid, indeed decreases, are closest to the red part of the spectrum. Early on, the JWs grew by leaps and bounds, but this began to slow in the mid-1950s until it reached its all-time slowest growth in 1966. Not coincidentally, this was the year that the "1975" prophecy was announced, and the growth began to pick up to respectable levels tho never at the very fast rates of the 1940s and early 1950s. This growth peeked in 1974, at a level never reached since. Then the growth sharply fell following the disconfirmation until the organization experienced a first-time ever decrease for two years. But it recovered in the 1980s so that it grew at a steady rate comparable to the late 1950s or the early 1970s. But by the 1990s, this rate began to weaken and it has steady declined ever since. The year 1995 marked the last time the rate was above 5.0; presently it is at 2.0 and it has gone as low as 1.7. Note that this the same level the rate was at in 1966, when the Society announced its last major prophetic date. It is hard to say whether the situation would have been any better if the generation doctrine was retained, but by 1997 the rate was at its lowest level in almost 16 years. The only time when the levels reached as low as 1.9 or 1.7 was during the disconfirmation phase after 1975, when many people left.
1945: 127,478 average publishers (19.3% increase)
1946: 158,034 "" "" "" (19.6% increase)
1947: 181,071 "" "" "" (12.7% increase)
1948: 230,532 "" "" "" (21.5% increase)
1949: 279,421 "" "" "" (17.6% increase)
1950: 328,572 "" "" "" (14.9% increase)
1951: 384,694 "" "" "" (14.5% increase)
1952: 426,704 "" "" "" (23.0% increase)
1953: 468,106 "" "" "" (8.8% increase)
1954: 525,924 "" "" "" (11.0% increase)
1955: 570,694 "" "" "" (7.9% increase)
1956: 591,556 "" "" "" (3.6% increase)
1957: 653,273 "" "" "" (9.5% increase)
1958: 717,088 "" "" "" (8.9% increase)
1959: 803,482 "" "" "" (10.7% increase)
1960: 851,378 "" "" "" (5.6% increase)
1961: 884,587 "" "" "" (3.7% increase)
1962: 920,920 "" "" "" (3.9% increase)
1963: 956,648 "" "" "" (3.8% increase)
1964: 1,001,870 "" "" "" (4.5% increase)
1965: 1,034,268 "" "" "" (3.2% increase)
1966: 1,058,675 "" "" "" (2.3% increase)
1967: 1,094,280 "" "" "" (3.2% increase)
1968: 1,155,826 "" "" "" (5.3% increase)
1969: 1,256,784 "" "" "" (8.1% increase)
1970: 1,384,782 "" "" "" (9.2% increase)
1971: 1,510,245 "" "" "" (8.3% increase)
1972: 1,596,442 "" "" "" (5.4% increase)
1973: 1,656,673 "" "" "" (3.7% increase)
1974: 1,880,713 "" "" "" (11.9% increase)
1975: 2,062,449 "" "" "" (8.8% increase)
1976: 2,138,537 "" "" "" (3.7% increase)
1977: 2,117,194 "" "" "" (-1.0% increase)
1978: 2,086,698 "" "" "" (-1.4% increase)
1979: 2,097,070 "" "" "" (0.5% increase)
1980: 2,175,404 "" "" "" (3.6% increase)
1981: 2,247,486 "" "" "" (3.2% increase)
1982: 2,347,334 "" "" "" (4.3% increase)
1983: 2,501,722 "" "" "" (6.2% increase)
1984: 2,680,274 "" "" "" (6.8% increase)
1985: 2,865,183 "" "" "" (6.9% increase)
1986: 3,063,289 "" "" "" (6.9% increase)
1987: 3,237,751 "" "" "" (5.7% increase)
1988: 3,430,869 "" "" "" (5.6% increase)
1989: 3,624,773 "" "" "" (5.4% increase)
1990: 3,846,811 "" "" "" (5.8% increase)
1991: 4,071,954 "" "" "" (5.5% increase)
1992: 4,289,737 "" "" "" (5.1% increase)
1993: 4,483,900 "" "" "" (4.3% increase)
1994: 4,695,111 "" "" "" (4.5% increase)
1995: 4,950,344 "" "" "" (5.2% increase)
1996: 5,167,258 "" "" "" (4.2% increase)
1997: 5,353,078 "" "" "" (3.8% increase)
1998: 5,544,059 "" "" "" (3.4% increase)
1999: 5,653,987 "" "" "" (1.9% increase)
2000: 5,783,003 "" "" "" (2.3% increase)
2001: 5,881,776 "" "" "" (1.7% increase)
2002: 6,047,997 "" "" "" (2.8% increase)
2003: 6,184,046 "" "" "" (2.2% increase)
2004: 6,308,341 "" "" "" (2.0% increase) -
greendawn
It still amazes me that the rank & file accepted the loss of their expectations without an uproar I used to think that when the inevitable admission would come the JWs would leave the org in droves. This was their major card in the game of seducing people.
Before they used to tell them the end is definitely near then it may still be near but it may also be far, they now allow for the possibility of a very distant new world.
How did all those who had made big sacrifices on the basis of a new world that was near, react? -
fleaman uk
I was 100% certain it was the Truth until 1995.Then small seeds of doubt grew over the next few Years...until i had to be true to myself,realise it was bollocks..and drop out.
I havent looked back.
So yes,im a 1995 quitter too!
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iggy_the_fish
Yes, it's depressing that the generation change didn't cause a mass exodous.
Here's part of a post from Hillary Step in the (seemingly endless) 605 or 624 thread.
http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/10/87714/1563050/post.ashx#1563050
... a few years ago I spoke with a very senior member of the Brooklyn contingency, and I mean at GB level regarding this issue.
He was prepared to acknowledge that the WTS had a problem on their plates with the 607BCE issue and that 'in Jehovah's time' things might change. He was at pains to point out that 'dates do not really matter, what matters is the sign'. He was discussing the sign in Matthew 24, which he said precluded the need of dates as the evidence is 'out there for all to see'. I suspect that this is the spin that they are preparing to run in the future. They will gradually bury 607BCE in preference to a 'visible sign'.
So, if this is true, the theology will be dumbed down even further, no chronology whatsoever. And, if past experience is anything to go by, the vast majority will not even notice the change. Most r&f don't know anything about 607 anyway do they?
If only World War 1 hadn't co-incidentally started in 1914, who'd know anything about Russel today?
ig.
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nicolaou
Leolaia
Thanks for your chart, that's a keeper. Here are some observations I made in December last year;
"The start of Knorr's presidency in 1942 marked the beginning of 50 years of solid - sometimes impressive - growth. With the benefit of hindsight, even the 1975 debacle can be seen to have had only a temporary effect on membership increase. '75 was not the real watershed in the Society's history, I believe that 1995 will come to be seen as such. Why?
In December 1992 the Society lost it's 'Oracle'. Fred Franz was baptized during the Russell era, moved to Brooklyn Bethel in 1920 and stayed there until his death over 70 years later. 1993 would have looked bleak without him but worse was to come - the Internet! It seems the Society did not at first realise the threat that faced them. Free access to such huge amounts of uncensored information - what a nightmare. 1994 brought it's own problems. Here we were 80 years on from 1914 and still no end in sight, many long to mid-term dubs are restless.
1995. It all comes to a head. The Watchtower finally dismantles it's long held 'Generation' doctrine. One of the big, juicy carrots is gone - time to use the 'stick' a little bit more!
Ten to twenty years from now I think it will be clear that the Watchtower's fall began in 1995. I'm sure it will take decades to crumble into true sterility but it will. Just something positive to think about at the start of 2005."
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LittleToe
Just to add a piece of circumstantial evidence to the pot:
In the December 2001 Elders' School one of the main demonstrations was on how to shepherd someone who had become inactive due to concerns about the "generation" doctrine change.
It might have been partially because I was going to leave about two weeks after this, but it jumped out at me, at the time.
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Elsewhere
Dont have the answer to your question. But an interesting note about this. I recently had a discussion with my elder father about the generation change. After he changed the subject about seven times, I finally zeroed in, and MADE him answer me. He said, that since I had been away for so long, it was all me, the society never said any such thing, and that I was just remembering it all wrong, and getting myself congused. (Guess, I'm just a dummy like that, me and how many other thousands of people) So, they are probably going to try and blame it on the rank and file, either not understanding correctly, or taking things too literally, whatever excuse they can. But bottome line, it aint their fault. I gave up on him, I knew there would be no getting through.
*** Watchtower 1988 October 15 p.4 The Sign—Are You Heeding It? ***
Guarding Against Impatience
No human can work out the date for the end of the present wicked system. "Concerning that day or the hour," Jesus said, "nobody knows, neither the angels in heaven nor the Son, but the Father."—Mark 13:32, 33.Might it be, though, that the sign could occur over the span of many human generations? No. The sign is to occur during one particular generation. The same generation that witnessed the beginning of the sign will also witness its climax in "a tribulation such as has not occurred from the beginning of the creation." Three historians, Matthew, Mark, and Luke, recorded Jesus' assurance of this.—Mark 13:19, 30; Matthew 24:13, 21, 22, 34; Luke 21:28, 32.
There is, however, the danger of becoming impatient. Seventy-four years have passed since the outbreak of World War I in 1914. From a human viewpoint, this may seem a very long time. But some eagle-eyed Christians who saw World War I are still very much alive. Their generation has not passed away.
*** The Truth That Leads To Eternal Life (book, 1968) chap. 11 pp. 94-95 The Last Days of This Wicked System of Things ***
The Last Days of This Wicked System of Things
THE Bible speaks of the time in which we are living as the "last days" or the "time of the end." (2 Timothy 3:1; Daniel 11:40) The facts show that this is a limited period that has a definite beginning and a definite end. It began in 1914 when Jesus Christ was enthroned as king in the heavens. It will end when God destroys this present wicked system of things. What a relief it will be when the organizations and persons that cheat and oppress, and all who endanger the security of their fellowmen, are gone!
2 How soon will that be? God's own Son, Jesus Christ, gives the answer. After drawing attention to the many things that mark the period from 1914 onward as the "time of the end," Jesus said: "This generation will by no means pass away until all these things occur." (Matthew 24:34) Which generation did he mean?
3 Jesus had just referred to persons who would "see all these things." "These things" are the events that have taken place since 1914 and those yet to occur down to the end of this wicked system. (Matthew 24:33) Persons born even as much as fifty years ago could not see "all these things." They came on the scene after the foretold events were already under way. But there are people still living who were alive in 1914 and saw what was happening then and who were old enough that they still remember those events. This generation is getting up in years now. A great number of them have already passed away in death. Yet Jesus very pointedly said: "This generation will by no means pass away until all these things occur." Some of them will still be alive to see the end of this wicked system. This means that only a short time is left before the end comes! (Psalm 90:10 [89:10, Dy]) So now is the time to take urgent action if you do not want to be swept away with this wicked system.
Thanks to Quotes! http://quotes.watchtower.ca/generation.htm -
garybuss
This "generation" rock has been falling a long time. How could it hit the pond without some ripples? I sat and speculated how it would be dealt with and what the outcome would be. The strategy of redefining the word "generation" was clever beyond my expectations. Do something clever and then deny you did it! Brilliant!
I was surprised they changed the alternative service guidelines, dropped the separation of the sheep and the goats view, and redefined "generation" all so close together. Now I think the alternative service issue and the sheep and goat change were distractions, and they thought they could slip the generation change through without a problem, quietly like they changed the Awake! masthead.
I watched it all play out, like watching a ball game. I thought the generation change would be like a ship hitting an iceberg for the Witness people but it was like they didn't even notice from my point of view. It looks like it was more like a torpedo hit than an iceberg. Now 10 years later, I'm seeing the survivors in the lifeboats and I now as the fog lifts I can see the ship listing badly to starboard.
I had forgotten how tough the Witness people are and how bad they wanted it all to be true. Many it looks like, took a lethal blow to their faith in the Society but hung on 3, 4, and 5 years out of hope, fear, loyalty, habit, and situational concerns.
The Society is over reacting to the under reacting by things like this summer's OBEY assemblies. They're loosing the respect of the Witness people. They're asking sacrifices from the Witness people like not eating good meals at assemblies for no good reasons. Then they hammer on them, do more, obey, do more more, obey more. They Witness people lost their reward, they lost their hope, their pay off for their tough life. They lost their assembly music, they lost their assembly food, they lost their confidence in the Society as their leader.
Now the Society is hammering resurrection as a hope. When I was a Witness, resurrection was just for the unfortunate few who died before Armageddon, now it's the hope of the week. Now the message is wait . . . till when we don't know, and in the mean time OBEY. The Witness people are noticing this and not liking it, I guarantee.