No, this is NO HARD evidence that the internet is hurting the Watch Tower Society.
Rather, this IS HARD evidence that the JWs are growing in particular in countries which have a large population growth rate, and that is not surprising at all.
I have refinded your statistics: I multiplied the 2010 publisher average figures for each country with the corresponding "population growth rate"-figures from the CIA-World-Factbook. That way I could calculate target figures for the 2011 publisher number for all countries. Then, I compared the real publisher figures for 2011 with those target figures. So I could calculate a real growth rate of publishers per country.
Just one example to illustrate that: For Nigeria the growth rate for publisher average figures is 1,80 % (rounded to 2 % in the yearbook). In 2011, population growth rate for Nigeria was 1,94 % according CIA-World-Factbook. So you could expect that the number of 298,476 publishers of 2010 would increase to 304,266 publishers in 2011 (298,476 * 101,94% = 304,266). But the real figure for 2011 was just 303,837. So the "real growth rate" for 2011 is: minus 0,14 % (303,837 / 304,266). That is a much more meaningful figure than the 2 % growth given in the yearbook.
So compare such "real growth" figures for the 10 categories of countries according to internet penetration rate that Cedars presented:
% internet penetration | growth rate (Cedars) | real growth rate |
> 90 | 0,92 | 0,69 |
80 - 89,9 | 1,02 | 0,62 |
70-79,9 | 1,37 | 1,20 |
60-69,9 | 1,07 | 0,42 |
50-59,9 | 1,67 | 1,01 |
40-49,9 | 1,72 | 1,52 |
30-39,9 | 2,89 | 1,94 |
20-29,9 | 1,89 | 0,09 |
10-19,9 | 3,51 | 2,55 |
< 10 | 4,58 | 2,08 |
Based on real growth rate, there is only very weak evidence for the influence of internet on the growth rate of JWs.