Well, ok,. The Bayesian theorem is an interesting approach, it actually makes a great deal of sense to apply it in a case like this when we have only 'balance of evidence' to guide us. Years ago I illustrated the illogic of simply assuming historicity when reading an internally plausible narrative. Goldilocks and the three bears (an English tale). It could be argued that the story has a historical 'core' because about 1000 years ago there were bears in the English countryside, bears have been observed eating porridge and little precocious girls can be destructive. No one does however, because the fantastic elements negate any meaningful argument for historicity. Bayesian theorem takes the likelihood of each element into consideration. The likelihood of bears in the countryside was at one time good (100%), the likelihood that they could talk is 0. Times the two and you have the odds of the story being historical in any meaningful way. In the case of the Jesus stories Carrier, unlike most scholars, takes the story at face value and assesses the likelihood of historicity. Most scholars, like Goodacre, begin with the assumption that the story is an embellishment of an ordinary man. I agree with Carrier that this is a mistake. If we are being asked the odds for the one-time existence of a man who was killed for religious disruption, the odds would pretty darn good. That is what is dominating scholarship.
Additionally, the lack of biographical elements in Paul and other early writings (e.g. Hebrews) strongly suggest those to be secondary. And as I said, far too often what is pinned as historical elements are actually OT allusions. I argued with Tim Callahan over diner a dozen years ago or so about this. He saw the 'Nazareth' element as a evidence of historicity because he deemed it an embarrassment that no writer would include unless forced to. That is ignoring the way the author used the "Nazareth' element, he used it because he thought it was from the OT. Thats's another evidence that these story details are secondary, (As it happens, Nazareth probably didn't exist as a village yet and the likely word the writers had heard from tradition was Nazarene).
BTW, Carrier does rely to Goodacre: Mark Goodacre on the Historicity of Jesus's Execution • Richard Carrier Blogs