A hard drive full of data is more complex than one without any data.
No it isn't. Data is alignment of magnetic particles. The particles are always there, representing some kind of information, regardless of how much of its space is occupied by coherent "data" stored there deliberately by humans. Likewise, the human brain has a set amount of storage and processing capacity. When it is occupied with thought, there is more activity through its pathways, but its physical complexity does not change (I think it should be obvious why changes to the brain over time are not relevant to this discussion).
P1: Our universe (x) is complex
P2: A creator (y) would have some kind of complexity
C: Our universe plus a creator would be more complex than our universe alone
I have been trying to imply for a while now that the creator could have the universe contained in his own mind, but I guess I should have been more explicit.
Ultimately, the only thing we know for sure is that we don't know how we can be here. "Something from nothing" is still totally absurd when one really contemplates it. That's not to say that we can't exist for an absurd reason, but it is simply impossible to understand, and it is disingenuous to point to something like a lecture by Krauss and act as if it explains anything at all. So we're here because of fluctuations caused by nothing in a field of nothing?
Believing that an intelligent being came into existence on its own, and then made us, is also absurd. But is it more absurd than the idea that a self-making universe produced intelligent beings who can in turn create things? Either way you are looking at intelligence forming from nothing.
We can't pretend that we have enough information to say which is more likely because we know too little about the fundamental cause of the self-ordering properties in the universe, how many universes there have been besides this one, and through what sort of process intelligence could develop besides the way it happened on Earth. Thus we cannot confidently apply Occam's Razor to this whole situation.