by Maximus 141 Replies latest jw friends
Maximus;
Thanks for the stats. You are eloquent in the way you post information. Thanks for all your posts. My experience of 25 years in association as one of JW is as you have said it to be. The kids are dropping like flys. And as HCM said the front rows at the KH certainly are empty!
"They couldn't quite explain it, they'd always just gone there.....mmmm
Tons of good stuff on this thread. Thanks again Max for starting it.
A few things it brought to mind:
As elders we used to joke back in the 80's that if you were a bad Witness kid and went to college, got a degree in law or engineering, you could go to Bethel and get a sweet job. If you were a good Witness kid and finished high school (perhaps) and then pioneered, you could go to Bethel and work in the laundry or clean toilets. And guess who your overseer would probably be? Right! The bad kid who got an education.
It was well-known from as far back as I can remember that people frequently left Bethel service and also left the Org. It was always considered one of the "danger times" along with stepping down as a servant or stopping pioneering. I remember being shocked back in the 60's to hear congregation servants say that they dreaded having an ex-Bethelite move into the cong. They often tended to be one of two things - weak, or expecting to be treated like a little god.
Joelbear: All of my experience tells me that Max's figures are accurate. You also have to remember that many of these kids that leave aren't necessarily baptized or publishers. In the congregation I attended, when I was young and in recent years, I would say that maybe a third to a half of those kids who leave never were baptized. Of my three kids, only one was baptized, and only two became publishers. My two youngest are not JWs.
There also is definitely growth among the overall JW organization - but as has been mentioned, most of that is within poor and often poorly educated populations. As access to information becomes more universal, these areas will be affected as well. A CO told me last year that the US figures would be even more dismal than they are if it weren't for the growth among immigrant Spanish and Portugeese speaking people. I also know personally several immigrants who studied with the Witnesses as a way to learn English.
Figures from the 1990 and 2000 yearbooks (which count the avg number of publishers for the year prior, not meeting attendees or inactive ones):
Total avg. pub: 1989 - 3,624,773 1999 - 5,653,987 an increase of 2,029,214. (Is that 35% or 56% growth??)
The number of US publishers in that same period increased by just under 152,000.
I loved reading about what all these other churches were doing. I thought it was great, and reminded my that the night my wife loves to attend the book study is the night when everyone brings snacks. To Bethel: IT'S THE ASSOCIATION, GUYS, NOT ALL THAT GREAT INFO ABOUT WHAT ISAIAH'S PROPHECIES MEAN!!!!!!
When you think about it, there have been such minor meeting changes over the past half century or more. Slight variations in the timing, etc., but that's it. I was thinking how there was supposed to be this big announcement this year at the DC abut adjustments in the meetings, and it turned out to be a disappointingly small adjustment in the TMS, according to my family who attended. Dull, boring, routine.
My take on all of this is that the WTS reached it's peak in the mid-1990's, and with slight yearly variations will continue to show a leveling off and eventual decline. My guess - no WTS in 2100.
About the lack of education and the narrow thinking among GB members, I competely agree. The sad thing I remember about so many in authority among the Witnesses was they were so narrowminded, so proud of it, and so totally confident that their narrow view was completely accurate. How often I heard year's of research, or a recognized authority dismissed by some elder with an eighth grade education and a Watchtower quote. In how many organizations do you have bragging rights on how LITTLE you've read or studied?
Great thread,
S4
thats 56% growth, not too shabby, even if it is among the poor. remember the mags aren't that expensive and they have an enormous mark up from cost to contribution.
152,000 increase in US. currently the figures are about 950,000 so a 19% growth rate in the US, thats about 2% a year, about the same as increase in the total US population year to year, I would agree pretty anemic.
US Witnesses must have the highest churn rate of any religious group.
Again, sourcing from the news study that 1% of US population indicates they are witnesses, thats about 3 million and less than 1 million active, means there are twice as many inactive witnesses as there are active witnesses. add on to this truly exwitnesses and you see there retention rate is pretty low. This is pretty clear from Memorial attendance every year. Again, my family has 16, 1 ex, 13 inactive (attend Memorial with unbelieving spouses) and 2 active. No wonder the Memorial numbers are bolstered so high. I think you can look at Memorial attendance as fairly accurate number of people who kinda sorta believe what witnesses teach and would probably give Jehovah's Witness as answer to what religion they belonged to. If, that theory is correct, then about 50% of witnesses are usually active within a given year. That percentage is probably dropping. That would make an interesting statistic to look at, Active/Memorial attendance from year to year. No way to count truly exJWs though.
While citing figures accurately, I am far more interested in the kids themselves. The recent Awake! article on Teen Depression was an insult to one's intelligence--I don't recall the thread title. But it is a clue to the fact there is a big problem, and they know about it.
Also, the Watchtower article on the Prodigal Child is a huge clue as well. More importantly, insiders are really wringing their hands over the issue of kids who are forced to lead "double lives."
The Society itself has made the mistake about looking solely at numbers to validate themselves. That basic fact of zero growth in 23 developed countries is the killer. What motivates the average dub to zealously preach with urgency today?
Is change on the way? Yes. Unfortunately it will be glacial.
: I am curious what extent of reform you desire - basically whether you just want to polish the bumpers to keep it going, or want to re-bore the engine. But I admire your individuality and personal integrity.
For me it is about integrity--and not the misguided idea I once had that the word meant unthinking loyalty to an organization.
The organization cannot be reformed from outside; that can only come from individuals who have the guts and will to do so INSIDE, and the determination to get rid of hardline thinking that is so strangling.
My personal desire is to see immediate change regarding the child abuse policy, and that will come. To see a clear, quick change in the horribly inconsistent blood policy rather than drag it out over years; kids are dying in the process.
Enforced shunning is also an evil that they will have to deal with eventually; it's ripping them apart. I'm not talking about "purity of the congregation," but about punishment for those who leave, just unconvinced that the end is near or that they must pretend a group of imperfect men is actually infallible in their teaching.
I've had personal contact with persons who went through the wrenching change of the former Armstrong group into a moderate religion with some first-rate schools and good leadership. Can it be done? Yes.
To pick up on one more comment: a few years ago about 25% or so of the Bethel family turned over each year. I don't have current figures on this, maybe someone else does. I do know there are many very unhappy folks at Bethel these days.
Maximus
Maximus,
Bravo. You hit the nail on the head with your last post. I thought that is where you were headed.
It is the people that matter isn't it, not the numbers, not the organization, not the doctrines.
Of course, it will take a major shift in philosophy to begin to cherish each individual's life as opposed to the strength of the organization.
I personally doubt that it can be done which is why I say, teach them to live life one at a time, any one of them that will listen and to any extent that you can get them to do it.
hugs
Joel
If you could subtract the hispanics in the US, you'd see a
remarkable decrease. Compare figures for Alaska or Canada.
There's a huge bunch of inactive/barely active Witnesses in the
US. A couple years back when they got EVERYBODY to be a publisher
for one month (scored over a million) - the following month
the number of pubs dropped by over a hundred thousand.
metatron
I'm very much in agreement with the last comments by Max, Joel and Met. It is the people that matter.
I was reminded by this discussion that I gave the initial talk at the DC years ago about "Are You Leading a Double Life?" Afterward one elder told me that I had been too loving in the talk, and should have taken a "harder line." Asshole - but a typical asshole.
Interesting that you speak of the dissatisfaction at Bethel, Max. I'm really out of touch lately, but that is no surprise. There are some really bright people there, who must be seeing what we are seeing.
And my take on the "double life" of Witness youths is that 90% plus must be in this category. My JW association is really limited, but the little I've seen over the past two years indicates that this problem is worse than ever.
As far as the other problems you mentioned - abuse, blood and shunning - I think we're just beginning to see these areas crumble. Silentlambs, Barbara Anderson, Dateline, lawsuits - it's coming fast and furious.
And it's about time. Thanks again.
S4
S4, I take careful note that you mention Barbara Anderson in the same line with powerhouses.
"One woman CAN make a difference."
Er, should I make that, "One grandma." With loads of integrity.
Joel,
: Of course, it will take a major shift in philosophy to begin to cherish each individual's life as opposed to the strength of the organization.
You have just put into one thoughtful sentence the central problem of the GB!
That it is a dilemma for them SCREAMS out the truth.
Max
Max,
The organization cannot be reformed from outside; that can only come from individuals who have the guts and will to do so INSIDE, and the determination to get rid of hardline thinking that is so strangling.1. Where are such men 'with guts'? Men like Dunlap, Franz, and Bill B. stepped up by 'stepping down' and showed a willingness to pay whatever price. Sadly, men of integrity have always been in short supply.
2. What are they waiting on? From many of your posts you have alluded to the widespread discontent that exists within the Society's upper crust (DOs, COs, Bethel Elders) that you know personally. What keeps them from acting, especially out in the open, where their acts might carry added weight owing to their reputation as men of integrity?
It is no wonder that reform, if it comes at all, will be 'glacial' indeed.
tj
<What keeps them from acting, especially out in the open, where their acts might carry added weight owing to their reputation as men of integrity?>
You must be kidding, or very new in the organization. What acts?
Good reputations count for squat when it comes to getting votes on the Governing Body. The system has eaten up the best men it has produced.
Arm chair quarterbacks are a dime a dozen, myself included.
My $0.03
Anchor
