Jdub,
Thanks, I might sell half short term.
But what about holding the other 1/2 for a year?
If someone lived a trillion X longer than you, and had a billion X more reasoning ability would he come to the same conclusions as you?
LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER
by You Know 536 Replies latest jw friends
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D wiltshire
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dubla
dwilt-
probably a safe bet.....just be ready for some bumps in the road for that year. techs arent out of the woods yet, and this one, even though its a rock solid company, still doesnt have positive earnings. it should by next year; theyre reportedly planning several acquisitions before year end, and these usually hurt short term numbers.
aa
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dubla
dwilt-
i should probably start a new thread for this, but for now ill just keep it on this neverending thread. the market closed about an hour ago, and i just happened to take a look at csco a minute ago. technical analysis is a funny thing. it cant always be explained, but boy does it ever work. early this morning i told you if csco closed above 14.59 today, that this would be bullish, that it would have a good chance of making a run. i told you this because 14.59 looked to me to be a point of "resistance" on the chart. wow how that resistance held. it played around between 14.57 and 14.63 just a half hour before the close before dipping to a closing price of 14.42. this after it had hit 15.03 intraday, looking like it would just blow right through. now, this doesnt mean that it cant still get legs and run, but the fact that 14.59 held as resistance suggests we could very possibly see a slight pullback from here.
hopefully though, itll buck the trend and close above 14.59 for you tomorrow. if that happens, again, it would be very bullish. the techs were strong for most of the day today, so cross your fingers.
aa
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Francois
Let's make a little side bet.
If Armageddon hasn't come "real soon," like say 2015, you quitclaim all your worldly assets to me. All of 'em: house, car, bank accounts, everything.
Since you believe that Armageddon is coming any day now, you'll never have to pay off and you're safer than a babe, right?
What do I bet? You can have all my assets if Armageddon does come, since I'd never survive it, what with being an apostate and all.
Are you on?
Francois
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slipnslidemaster
boy, by the looks of it, Armegeddon will be here and gone before this thread is finished.
Slipnslidemaster: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
- Ben Franklin
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Winston
Jdub,
I think you hit onto something:
i should probably start a new thread for this, but for now ill just keep it on this neverending thread. the market closed about an hour ago, and i just happened to take a look at csco a minute ago.
When I read your post as quoted above I was thinking since this thread is read often by many lets turn it into a stock discusion thread.
I'M feeling a little bullish tonight. With the news and all I know it's a little too early to feel that way. I think 1st quarter next year every thing will pretty much turn around.
I vowed to not put any more money than I already have, into the stock market, but to leave what I have in.Just a question do you use graphs? Do you see any CUPS WITH A DOWNWARD SLOPING HANDLE?
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larc
jdubia,
I have read some of your posts, but not all of them. I can tell you know alot about investing and the markets. I think you describe yourself as a technical analyst, and from that I take it that you believe that the shape of the ups and downs on the graph for a company have special meaning.
I have read about this approach, but I subscribe to the concept of value investing, as described by Ben Graham, David Dreman, John Neff, Walter Weitz, and the most famous value invester, Warren Buffet. Could you comment on the similiarities and differences between value investing and your approach, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both, and their track records, as two different investment strategies?
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Trilobite
Larc,
In a sense the difference is the following; it is essentially impossible for an individual to really determine the fundamentals of a company or commodity. However, the big investment houses can do that; here I don't mean what analysts say but what institutions and insiders do, i.e., what they buy and sell. What they do is often very different from what they say. That's why the public is always buying tops and selling bottoms. Technical analysis is an approach that tries to figure out what the big boys are doing by looking at price charts. Very often prices will go in the exact opposite direction to what fundamental analysis would suggest since there is, perhaps, some information only known to a few. Or the markets are being manipulated somewhat.
Value investers got kileld during the late 90s but more recently have done well. The idea of TA is to try to do well all the time; of course you can get nailed too.
T.
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dubla
wow, alot of posts since i logged off yesterday! ill try to respond to all of them here......
dwilt-
sorry, but the technical analysis of csco held true today as i predicted it probably would. it opened lower and is sliding a bit this morning.
winston-
to answer your question, i do use graphs quite often, yes. as far as cups with downward sloping handles, i assume you mean saucer patterns.......are you looking for individual stock picks?
feeling bullish eh? id love to feel bullish, im just not sure we are going straight up from here. spring next year is what alot of analysts and economists are pointing to, but weve seen how often they can be dead wrong. from a technical analysis standpoint, a retest of our lows, or at least a slight retracement, then another rally would actually be the best thing for the market right now. if it continues to go straight up, creating a "v-type" bottom, that actually will cause the market to go from oversold to overbought in a hurry, which isnt what we want. retest, then rally, some sideways movement to build a base......this sequence would provide the best environment for the start of another long term bull market. of course, it would also help if there isnt anymore surprise attacks against the u.s. in the interim.
larc-
I think you describe yourself as a technical analyst, and from that I take it that you believe that the shape of the ups and downs on the graph for a company have special meaning........Could you comment on the similiarities and differences between value investing and your approach, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both, and their track records, as two different investment strategies?
okay, big question, and ill try to do my best to answer it without getting too long-winded. first off, i believe in both, and i do not see them as opposites. there are certain fundamentals that go into labeling a stock "value" or "growth", which i wont get into right now, but ill say that value playing works overall as a conservative approach, and in down markets it can really thrive. two of the men you mentioned, dremen and buffet, both got absolutely killed in the booming tech markets we had those two years. why? they play whats fundamentally sound and usually out of favor. buffet made a living off of this for years, and then his portforlio went straight into the tank when the tech boom hit. the same with dremen. but now theyre both back on top, because value is the only thing that really survived this massive bear market. and now people will tend to say you need a company with stong fundamentals to make it long term. i would tend to agree. now ill get into the strategies.....the two analysis strategies that are used are technical, and fundamental, and this is where the real differences, and the answers to your question lie. fundamental analysis takes into consideration a companies earnings, stock price, outstandstanding shares, growth rate, etc. put it all together and youve got the fundamentals of the company, which theoretically tell you whos got the business plan and profit margin necessary to make it long term, and who doesnt. it works.
technical analysis takes none of these into consideration. it uses only graphs, investor sentiment, put-call ratios, advance-decline scales, etc. they all have very significant meanings, but without describing each, lets just stick with charting since thats the one you were centering on. you said, "I take it that you believe that the shape of the ups and downs on the graph for a company have special meaning." yes i do. charting is not everything, and it is not fool-proof, nothing in the market is. but you wouldnt believe the accuracy in which it works. the csco example for one, if you read through the posts and see the bit of graphing i used on that one, it was amazing to watch it work to perfection. graphing uses "resistance levels" and "support levels". when a company hits 50 dollars, then falls back....rallies up to 50 again, then falls back, and again the same.....this 50 dollar mark becomes "resistance". the stock is having a hard time breaking through it, regardless of the stocks fundamentals. once it breaks through the resistance on a closing basis, this is very bullish, and you can almost say its a safe bet to make a run. at that point, once above 50 for a day, week, month, whatever....50 now becomes support. it might take a dip back down, but usually will hold at the new found support. and just as breaking through resistance is bullish, breaking through support is bearish, a definite sell sign. you asked for specific track records, and id really have to dig a bit for that answer, but i can tell you with conviction, technical analysis works.
so ive said fundamental analysis works, and ive said technical analysis works.....but they essentially have nothing to do with each other, so which do you go by? i use both, and personally i think its the best way. i like to invest in fundamentally sound companies in order to prevent rapid overnight losses, but also trade these companies according to their graph pattern. im going to give one more example, pfizer: PFE. this is one i was telling yk awhile back that we profited on, and ill show you how technical analysis worked so beautifully. id encourage you to check the charts on this one to get a better picture of it......
between the weeks of 5/28/99, and 3/31/00, PFE built a nice trading range between 33 and 42, with strong support showing in the 33-35 range. the week of 4/7/00, it broke out, and ran to 50. it stayed up there (42-50) for a year, then dipped hard in march of 01. it broke through its new support at 42, and fell sharply out of bed. then a funny thing happened. it hit 34 and bounced like a rubber ball, straight up. the original support that was built in 99-00, held at 34. it was up for awhile again, back up to 42-45, la dee da, and sep. 11th comes around. guess what? bam, down to 34, and again, 34 held perfectly. its a strange and wonderful thing to watch. thats where we stepped in and bought it. on 9/24/01 to be exact, bought a bunch at 35. personally i sold mine a week later and took the gain, but weve still got people in it, and ideally i think well unload between 42-45.
so, hopefully i at least partially adressed your questions....i think i still got long winded.
aa
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larc
Trilobite and Jdubia,
Thank you for your detailed answers. I had read a criticism of technical analysis in Dreman's book, but it appears that he was attacking a straw man, at least as explained by the two of you. It appears that your approaches are more broad based than what he was criticizing.
I believe I have the fundemental knowledge and the analytical skills to use the combined strategey thay you two propose. However, I do not have the emotional fortitude and the patience to do it on my own. For that reason, I have invested in mutual funds. A good chunk used to be with Vanguard Windsor. After John Neff retired, the fund did poorly for a couple years. I should have gotten out at least a year before I did. I transfered to the Weitz Value Fund. Walter Weitz has not had a down year in the last ten or so years, even in the years when other value funds were doing poorly. Last year his fund was up 18% when most funds were down. His fund is down this year, but he had about 25% in cash and is buying bargains now, according to a recent note on his web site.
Jdubia, you used the term "we" in your comments. Are you part of an investment group or are you a stock broker? Just curious.