I have been doing some analysis on the declining growth rates of the Watchtower Society and they are very encouraging for all ex JWs. I will try to link to some of them below, but for the firefox users or anyone wanting to see the source table they can all be seen at http://jwfacts.com/index_files/statistics.htm
Number baptised compared to increases in publishers and number that have stopped publishing
1997 was the peak of a long period of year on year growth in baptisms. Up until 1995 the number that stopped publishing was a small fraction in comparison to the increase in publishers. Since then the number of people leaving has grown to the point where it has on occasion exceeded the publisher growth rates.
Percentage that stopped publishing compared to number baptised
The number leaving has been calculated by comparing the number baptised with the increase in average publishers. This takes into account an average death rate of 1% per year. The ‘percentage leaving’ is the number that stop publishing, and does not necessarily correlate with the number that stop attending meetings, as it includes
· people disfellowshipped/disassociated
· people that have faded from meetings
· people that may attend meetings but have become inactive in reporting
There is a timing difference between when a person starts publishing and gets baptised, but this averages out over the 15 year period represented.
This is one of the most telling graphs, showing that the number of people leaving has tripled from the rate 15 years ago. It is not shown in the graph, but for the 10 years from 1986 to 1995 the rate was an average of 12%; for the 10 years from 1996 to 2005 it had risen to 41%.
Hours preaching per additional publisher
More significant than the number of hours required per baptism is the hours required for an additional publisher. Due to the high rise in people leaving, the number of hours preaching required per additional publisher increased between 1991 and 2005 from 4,000 to 16,000, an increase of 400%