I'm embarrassed that I'm not as good at reading graphs as I should be, so I have some questions: So the first graph represents, the number of people baptised that year, the number of people who became publishers that year and the number of previously baptised who have stopped publishing. Is that right? I'm trying to figure out if I'm looking at current numbers or at ratios compared to some stable base. And, what the heck happened in 1999 that caused almost 50% of baptised members to stop publishing? One more question on this graph--does stopping publishing mean stopping turning in time sheets? Thanks, sorry for being dense--and thanks very much for the work!
Some incredible new publisher statistics and Graphs
by jwfacts 66 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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jwfacts
Thanks for the comments
This is almost precisely my comment at bookstudy two weeks ago. I did use cruder language. I said that IF we choose to embrace this belief, then everyday Jehovah delays Armageddon the only thing accomplished is that the "body count" goes up.
...stunned faces....
JT, what a comment for a bookstudy, you must like living life on the edge.
It is not all good news, as despite the figures there still is overall growth. However, if the current trends continue it is only a matter of time before there is negative growth.
Another interesting figure is the percentage that stop publishing compared to total publishers. Ten years ago it hovered around 1.5% were as now it is over 2.5%. That means that each congregation has about 3 people that leave every year.
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jwfacts
Here you go LittleToe,
1 billion hours of door knocking and all those kids raised as JWs and yet the number baptised only amounts to the small section at the top. Not the sort of company that you would want to buy shares in.
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greendawn
It was inevitable that those tight and obstinate little men would eventually end up with this but they deserve it they got their come uppance, apparently jehovah wants this to happen since he gives no new light on the issues that drive away so many dubs.
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jwfacts
Hi KGfree,
They are current numbers.
the number of people baptised that year, the number of people who became publishers that year and the number of previously baptised who have stopped publishing.
You are right about first and last bit. It is not the number that became publishers, but rather the increase in average publishers. A subtle difference as publishers will report some months and not others.
what the heck happened in 1999 that caused almost 50% of baptised members to stop publishing?
This surprised me too, as I thought there would have been a big hype just prior to 2000. With this figure it needs to be realised that the people that stopped publishing are not 50% of those baptised in that year. It is similar to the 50% divorce rate. 50% of people that marry do not get divorced, but rather if 100 people get married in a year there are a different 50 that got divorced in that year. There will not be negative growth until the number leaving is over 100% of the number getting baptised.
If you add back the 1% that I subtracted for deaths, then the figure in 2005 the number that left was 67% of number baptised, so it is not far from the critical mass of over 100%
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SixofNine
What fascinates me is how differently the event of Y2K affected the witnesses, vs the event of 9/11. Just strange to me.
Is it the difference between a slow progression towards/realisation of a "shoulda-been-here-by-now" date (even as that date was viewed dramatically by the world at large) and a sudden shock to the ole armaggedon's-a'comin' reflexes?
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jwfacts
a sudden shock to the ole armaggedon's-a'comin' reflexes
I think this is it. The WTS survives off being a doomsday cult. The periods of huge growth were just prior to 1914, 1925 and 1975. The spike in 2002 is another relex action to the fear that Armageddon is about to arrive. It indicates that the main difference between why a person is a JW and mainstream Christianity is not the doctrine but fear of Armageddon. How can the WTS survive when it runs out of ways to perpetuate this fear? 1914 is becoming old and tired, so some other tactic will need to be introduced.
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LittleToe
jwfacts:Excellent. Thanks for that!
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slimboyfat
Only by their own historical figures can recent trends be viewed as bad for the Witnesses. Compared to most other churches in the west they are holding up pretty good under secularization. If you want to see real stories of decline I suggest you look into the Methodists or Anglicans in Britain. The Church of Scotland too is set to disappear by 2050 on current trends. The church statistics books by Peter Brierley, as well as books by Steve Bruce and Callum Brown are most instructive.
Slim
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LittleToe
SBF:
To do that accurately you'd have to take a country by country demongraphic. Most bible-based religions are seeing increase in the third-world and decline in the first-world.
