Some incredible new publisher statistics and Graphs

by jwfacts 66 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  Arthur

  To do that accurately you'd have to take a country by country demongraphic. Most bible-based religions are seeing increase in the third-world and decline

  This is a very important point. Jehovah's Witnesses (even prior to 9/11) were experiencing explosive growth in coutries like Mexico, Brazil, and smaller island nations. It's important to evaluate where the most agressive growth is; and to compare it to the population's general education level, as well as the flow of information in that country. Specifically, in a country where most of the population has no access to public libraries or the internet; it will be almost impossible for them to research the organization's past or complex subjects such as Biblical scholarship and archeology.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Little Toe,

  You wrote:

  To do that accurately you'd have to take a country by country demongraphic. Most bible-based religions are seeing increase in the third-world and decline in the first-world.

  It is certainly true that religious participation is declining in the western world, but I do not think it is so straight-forwardly true that "bible-based religions are increasing in the third-world". Some denominations are certainly doing very well in the third world, Pentecostals in South America being perhaps the most talked about example. However what seems to be happening is that many are swapping denominations within Christianity in such countries rather than there being an upsurge in Christianity as a whole. In Brazil for example the Catholic Church is hemoraging millions of adherents to the Pentecostals. A famous scholar concerned with the secularization thesis, David Martin, was so impressed by the success of Pentecostal groups in South America that it forced him to reconsider his view that the secularization process, well-documented in many developed countries, would be replicated in developing countries as a matter of course hand in hand with their modernization.

  Other scholars such as Grace Davie picked up on this, and also focussed on American particularism among developed countries to make the argument that Europe has in fact turned out to be be the exceptional case rather than the forerunner in its secularity contrary to what many social scientists had anticipated. However debate over the success stories of denominations such as the Pentecostals has been fleshed out in recent years by studies that have explored the deeply political roots and consequences of mass conversions in countries such as Brazil, making the claim to success of Pentecostals and other denominations in third world countries not as straight-forward a phenomenon as it once appeared.

  So what I am trying to say is that 1) trends in developed countries will differ radically in their root causes as well as likely in their outcomes from developing countries necessarily because such trends are the result of the working out of deep historical and societal forces and 2) "success stories" in the third world and even in the USA as far as religious participation is concerned are more complicated than meets the eye.

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  As a matter of interest, in Scotland between 1984 and 1994 attendance at Church of Scotland services declined by a whopping -19% and then by an even greater -22% in the eight years between 1994 and 2002. (these are the figures from Peter Brierley of Christian Research Institute)

  Over the same periods all the free Presbyterian churches in Scotland combined decreased by -19% and then by -5%.

  Over those periods Jehovah's Witness publishers in Britain as a whole increased by 32% and then decreased by -3%.

  Not a bad record in a country undergoing rapid secularization.

  Slim
• 

  dido

  What you have to take into account is that publishers can put in 15 mins(is that right) a month now, so there are a lot that they are counting now, which puts their no`s up.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Maybe so, but I think this policy was not in effect in 2002 and so would not skew these particular sets of comparisons.

  Slim
• 

  AMNESIAN

  What you have to take into account is that publishers can put in 15 mins(is that right) a month now, so there are a lot that they are counting now, which puts their no`s up.

  dido, I believe this is permitted only for those officially designated as elderly or infirm (!). Nevertheless, you raise a good question as to the validity of any of the WTS's publisher numbers: besides the "15 minute" stat-inflater, there is also the very real likelihood that most people do not quit reporting time the very month they actually quit putting in time. Most probably submit bogus reports for some period of time before giving up the charade altogether. Arguably, the situation is even more dismal than these dismal stats would indicate.

  Justitia Themis:

  Everyday on average over 200,000 people are born, but the number of active Jehovah’s Witnesses increases by only 224 (2005 daily increase in average publishers). That would mean that each day Armageddon is delayed there is an extra 200,000 people that Jehovah will be required to destroy.

  Brilliant.

  And in the words of the erudite TMS conductors I suffered during my JW existence, "...thank you for that informative information, jwfacts.

  AMNESIAN
• 

  V

  Great analysis.

  Of course this does not take into account:

  • Believing JWs who pad their numbers to maintain the 10 hour/month "standard"
  • Non believing but "active" JWs who completely fictionalize their service reports so as not to appear "inactive"
  • Internal spin on stats at headquarters

  Considering that each of the above factors inflates already dismal production in the field illuminates the stark reality facing the future of JWs.

  WTS is very aware of this and are reacting with their hype rally of 2006:

  • double tract campaigns (ready made for reactivating inactive JWs with "easy" service)
  • "hard-hitting" Deliverance is Near conventions
  • Bible Study for Dummies (otheriwse known as the Bible Teach method)
  • 2006 release Live with Jehovah's Day in Mind focusing on maintaining JW zeal.

  My prediction: this is the last squirt from an old toothpaste tube.
• 

  jwfacts

  Compared to most other churches in the west they are holding up pretty good under secularization.

  A recent Newspaper article showed that in Sydney there has been a recent surge in Church attendance amongst Sydney teenagers.

  WTS is very aware of this and are reacting with their hype rally of 2006 :

  This sounds very much like a sales company. I used to work in a large American companies sales division and they really knew how to hype the sales reps to increase growth. The WTS seems to be doing the same, looking at ways to motivate the sales staff publishers. However they face an uphill battle without being able to offer financial incentives. They can only use the "end of the world will be here in the next couple of years" line every so often.
• 

  JWdaughter

  I spoke out loud in an empty room when I read this. WHOA. Ok, not very erudite, but it made a lot more sense to my brain than graphs (different learning style)

  JT said: "From jwfacts website:

  A reason given for why the Last Days have continued for so long is that Jehovah “desires all to attain to repentance.” If, as the Watchtower Society says, only active Jehovah’s Witnesses will be saved then this scripture does not make sense. Everyday on average over 200,000 people are born, but the number of active Jehovah’s Witnesses increases by only 224 (2005 daily increase in average publishers). That would mean that each day Armageddon is delayed there is an extra 200,000 people that Jehovah will be required to destroy.

  This is almost precisely my comment at bookstudy two weeks ago. I did use cruder language. I said that IF we choose to embrace this belief, then everyday Jehovah delays Armageddon the only thing accomplished is that the "body count" goes up.

  ...stunned faces...."

  Shelly. . .who wonders what my mom would say to THAT comment!!
• 

  AK - Jeff

  Thank you JWfacts.

  I especially like the one that shows it now takes 16,000 hours to make a publisher. This is incredible. It shows the amazingly poor effectiveness of the JW work now.

  And I think I know why - how many times have we seen a poster elect that it was now a bad idea to join the witnesses, now that they had found this site [or others like it] and learned the 'truth of the truth'? In the days of the 4000 hour publisher, they likely would have joined. Now they learn the truth before it happens to them. GO INTERNET!

  Jeff
• 

  Arthur

  And I think I know why - how many times have we seen a poster elect that it was now a bad idea to join the witnesses, now that they had found this site [or others like it] and learned the 'truth of the truth'? In the days of the 4000 hour publisher, they likely would have joined. Now they learn the truth before it happens to them. GO INTERNET!

  Yes, good point. There is no way that organizations such as the Unification Church (Moonies) could have enjoyed such successful recruiting, expansion, financial enrichment, and political influence in the information age. In the age of the internet; anyone with a modem can uncover what was only accessable to the most savvy investigative journalists 30 years ago.