this is a good thread and I'll need to go back and read each post carefully later, but I'll jump in with my 2 cents first.
the JW religion requires a high level of commitment from it's members (sacrificing time, personal choices, freedoms, money and opportunities in life)
This has only worked on such a large scale because of the promise/threat of armageddon, with a specific date in mind.
Now all they will do is say armageddon is coming SOON. I see a decrease in the amount of personal sacrifices being made by many people. People are getting a college education. Good for them. People are taking jobs that don't quite fit with the meeting program (ie elders and ministerial servants with professional careers requiring 50% travel, missing half their meetings). Good for them. People doing what they want to do socially, and nobody says anything about it. Good for them. People missing meetings way more than they used to and not losing their reputation, because they don't miss meetings as much as I do. Good for them.
Without a date, it doesn't work. SOON isn't going to work. This religion, to stay the way it is, requires people to sacrifice, sacrifice, sacrifice, and to take it really seriously. I don't see it as much anymore. They are losing that level of commitment they had. You would never guess it from their comments at the meetings, but people just aren't taking it as seriously as they did 10 or 20 years ago even.
It's a slow moving trend, but it's a trend the WTS is going to need to deal with if they want to stay as they are.
I don't know if they will or won't reform. I would guess not, but maybe the rank and file will someday actually force it.