So me, of all people, had a religious experience (page 25)

Nickolas

HA! So you prefer an adult conversation after you childishly run up and smak JO with your little bag of bitchiness? tsk, tsk. That IS rich.

Another one. Why is it Christians are so hostile toward atheists?

Nickolas

Just b/c others have not received an answer or response does not mean higher intelligence does not exists.

Hey there, Viola, your statement it true. Is the corollary also true?

Mad Sweeney

I would say both are true, Nickolas. But I'm a sort of agnostic pantheist at the moment.

Violia

No one does not have to mean the other is true, but it is possible.

OnTheWayOut

Not Understanding Probability Theory

If a coin toss results in heads nine times in a row, what are the odds that it will be heads on the tenth toss?

50/50.

Many people would argue that the chance of this happening is less than one in a thousand. However, that answer is wrong. The probability that the tenth coin toss is going to come up as heads is still 0.5, because each toss is statistically independent from those that preceded it. Tossing nine heads in a row is very unlikely, however once it has happened, it doesn’t influence the outcome of the tenth toss in any way.

People who fall for this fallacy, do so because of a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works. They combine the probability of past events (irrelevant for independent trials), with that of future events. Some people would erroneously conclude that “tails is long due to come up” and as such would think that it’s more likely to occur.

It’s not a difficult theory to understand, when we just talk coin tosses. Every instance of an event relies on the same probability regardless of it being a coin toss, or you’re rolling dice or playing hands of cards. The next hand is independent of the previous hands when calculating odds.

Okay, now:

You are dealt one of four Kings in a hand along with any Two through Eight (any of four suits so any of twenty-eight cards).

The odds of getting the exact same hand on the next deal are not changed. And we are not even talking about getting the exact same hand. We are talking about getting one of four Kings along with one of twenty-eight cards. Heck, you probably got the King before the low card sometimes and after the low card other times.

It's even obvious that you are "looking for a miracle" when you remark that the Ace of Spades was in a certain place "ALMOST" all of the hands.

Even if you double or triple the number of times that happened, it's not remarkable.

Now, if you can never play a hand ever again without this happening, a King and a low card, give us an update.

Nickolas

Well done, but you might want to be careful about sounding so rational, OTWO. You might be called childish and bitchy by someone who does not like what you are saying.

Nickolas

I guess what it comes down to, Violia, is the existence of the supernatural is not necessarily the default conclusion when someone can't explain something. Current example, sab is unable to explain what has happened to him, therefore it must be God. Why must it be God? Why can't it be something rather mundane, like statistical probability? And why do people get so angry when you point this out?

sabastious

Brings back memories, from when my first son was teething 34 years ago. This too shall pass, Sab, and one day you will get some sleep again.

I Live for the day when I'll say "life with sleep at last!"

-Sab

sabastious

I haven't read this long thread. Just wondering: If you hadn't made that statement in your mind prior to the game, how would you have probably interpreted the series of hands?

It would still have me up at night as it does right now; to me, it was simply astonishing.

-Sab

sabastious

This relates to something I have been thinking about. I can't think of anyone who has had "a spiritual experience" that didn't ask for one. Not even me. So I wonder, doesn't the asking do something psychological that may cause "the answer" to appear? Or does it open up some cosmic spiritual doorway? Or is there difference merely semantic? Is the supernatural perfectly natural but not yet explained, and in the meantime attempted explanations are polarizing?

Damnit Mad, I have been thinking about that too and I have possible answers... I just don't have the time to type them all out right now... it's a little frustrating.

-Sab

So me, of all people, had a religious experience

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