It has often been commented on the forum that Watchtower is afraid to abandon their shunning policy because they know that without the threat of shunning many JWs would up and leave the organisation overnight.
No doubt some would leave, but I think we tend to overestimate the number who would leave if shunning was discontinued. I just don't get the impression that congregations are full of people who are itching to leave but who only remain out of fear. Admittedly it is difficult to be at all certain about this, because JWs are not at liberty to discuss their feelings openly on the issue. But people in that position do tend to leave sooner or later, which leads me to to suspect that most JWs who remain sitting in the KH do mostly believe in the religion. Plus my own interactions with JWs, who I had guessed were marginal, but discovered were not, has caused me to reconsider the idea that there are huge numbers of active JWs who wish to leave the religion, but who are afraid to do so. In short I have come to believe that the overwhelming majority of JWs believe the religion and are JWs because they want to be JWs.
However because most of us on the forum have experienced sitting in a KH while not believing it, and wondering about the consequences of speaking our mind, we may tend to project these feelings onto others. No doubt there is always a minority in the KH who are in this position, and are usually in some sort of transition. But I think the majority sitting in the KH do believe it and they would stay in the JWs even without the threat of shunning,
If that's a correct assessment then it raises the question: what would be the effect on organisational growth of abandoning the shunning policy? I want to suggest that it would in fact promote JW growth if they discontinued shunning. I make this argument largely on the basis a new book I read called, Families and Faith: How Faith is Passed Down Across Generations by Vern Bengston. Basically the book explores the crucial role the family plays in the preservation of religious communities.
Factors in the family setting that inhibit the successful transmission of religion from one generation to the next include: interfaith marriages, lack of parental warmth, parents forcing their religion on their children, extended family influencing children to explore alternative beliefs, hypocrisy or disjuncture between parental beliefs and actions.
This study strongly suggests that parents who try to force or coerce their children to follow their religion are least successful. Conservative attitudes and religion in themselves can be successfully transmitted as long as they are accompanied by parental warmth and acceptance. I will quote one key passage:
The warm, affirming relationship pattern was most likely to result in successful transmission of religion. Children responded best to parents who were unconditionally supportive, who provided consistent role-modelling of religious practices, and who did not force their beliefs or practices on their children. For example, in the Wilson family we saw that a consistently close relationship with parents created continuity in Evangelical faith - across four generations. In addition, we found that the most successful parents in religious transmission showed love, respect and patience for those children who took a different path in religion; these often turned out to be "Prodigals" and returned. By contrast, the other three parenting styles (such as cold or distant, ambivalent, or mixed-message) appeared to decrease the likelihood of religious transmission and increase the likelihood of rebellion. The stern judgementalism of Brandon Young's father, for instance, was a decided turnoff for Brandon and a key factor in his decision to leave the Mormon faith. Parental piety does not, it seems, make up for a distant though devout dad.
My own experience and observation of JWs tell me that is absolutely correct. The shunning policy alienates far more JW children than it succeeds in keeping through fear. Whereas the grown up children of other faiths look back fondly to a welcoming community, and often return, for JWs there is the barrier of judgementalism and shunning to overcome. No wonder JWs are so poor at retaining or welcoming back JW children into the community.
So, far from holding the JW community together, or promoting growth, the shunning policy of JWs is the single biggest factor in their stagnation and decline. It is a self-inflicted wound.
The GB seem to think that by promoting early baptism and shunning of straying youth they will force young ones to obey and adhere to the faith. The evidence indicates the opposite.
The single best thing the GB could do to retain members and promote growth is to discontinue shunning, display love, acceptance and patience, while welcoming back "Prodigals" who have left the faith.