I think it's important to point out that the two views (evil geniuses vs. braindead believers) aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.
It's quite possible that there are competing camps on the GB and the ultimate policy that gets made depends on what the GB "centrists" end up deciding, whoever those "centrists" may be.
Think about it in terms of what happens at the US Supreme Court. If you try to analyze their opinions, it often seems as if the institution is bipolar. One year it'll rule one way, the next year another way. Of course, we have the benefit of finding out how the vote went down and reading the judge's opinions. We can determine who the liberals, conservatives and centrists are. You don't get a consistent, harmonious pattern of decisions from the court because it's governed by committee (9 justices) and the ultimate deciders are the swing votes.
I'll give you an example: In 1986 the US Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of state laws against sodomy. In 2003, less than 20 years later, the Court struck down such laws finding sexual behavior to be protected under the constitution. What changed? The composition of the Court and social norms.
If you view JW leadership as a singular, harmonious unit, then one can easily become perplexed at the seemingly contradictory policies that are handed down. However, if you view leadership as an often-fragmented committee like the Supreme Court, then it becomes easier to understand why there are conflicting messages being sent. Sometimes JW leadership sends messages reflecting a long-term manipulative view, such as trying to get JWs to donate their estates and their continual real estate expansion. Sometimes they reflect a naive view of the world with imminent destruction in mind, such as when they discourage education and childbearing.
It all depends on which faction wins out on the GB, but of course, that's all invisible to us.