Posts by peacefulpete

13

The Great God Contest

by Tatiana in

right here on the internet, we will attempt to bring a final resolution to all religious wars, controversy and hypocrisy.. the great god contest

the rules

the rules are simple.

peacefulpete

I'll take the Unknown God, the unknowns sometimes surprise everybody. Maybe they try harder.

Edited by - peacefulpete on 10 February 2003 11:9:30

Edited by - peacefulpete on 10 February 2003 11:12:13

8

Does the WTBTS release numbers of DF/DA'd?

by RAYZORBLADE in

does anyone know if the wtbts releases the actual number of people disfellowshipped or disassociated in any given year?

not that they'd give the names and their df/da offenses.

i vaguely remember an assembly where some numbers were released regarding the number of persons disfellowshipped for a particular offense, for example:

I had fun playing with the numbers on another thread last night and today. Go to the study article area and look for the thread titled: making sense of the report. I was very shocked at first at the 3% growth rate claimed in the U.S. this year. I believe I have found the way these numbers lied. It is in fact about 9 out of 10 of those Dfd and DAd that return. Take a look and leave input.

23

making sense of report

by peacefulpete in

help....i have heard that the u.s. report in the jan 1 wt showed a 3% increase!

the past 15 years or so never saw growth more than 1%.

dis they change the way these figures are compiled resulting in exagerated numbers?

peacefulpete

Old hippi...Actually with the number of baptised being about the descending average for the last 4 years there is no reason to suspect a disordinant number of unbaptised publishers being approved. The death rate as you pointed out is constant (unless the world developed a JW virus) and therefore does not affect the number I gave. These calculations are of course rough but the incredibly high number that went inactive in 1999 and 2000 was the figure that failed to catch my eye the first time. Given that the baptism figure were about average in those years as well as in 1998 we have no reason to suspct a rash of unbaptised publishers being approved or walking away. There also was no policy change that would predictably affect these numbers. Therefore that number too was a descending constant. The number of unbaptised publishers then likewise did not, according to this evidence, affect the calculations. The exact percentage of those who ceased publishing that were actually baptised cannot be decifered but the fact that such a large number did so in 1999 and 2000 without any reason to suspect a greater than average number of unbaptised publishers walking or less than average number being approved leads to the conclusion that a larger than average number were DFd or DAd. For the sake of arguement lets guess that 50% of those who left off preaching were DFd or DAd and 1% died. That means about 9,600 (1% of 960,0000) of the 36,000 who ceased preaching in 1999 didn't quit but kicked. That leaves about 26,000. 50% of 26,000 is 13,000. Take about 30% of 90% (9 out of 10) those (since the average is about 2 years and this is three years distant)and we come up with about 5,800. Take the number of those who left in 2000, 25,000 and take 50% (our assumed ratio of baptised vs. unbaptised that ceased preaching)and you get 12,500. Divide 90% of this by 50% (the average length of disfellowshipping being 2 years)and you get 5,600. Since the number of those who ceased publishing in 2001 was more average it can be ignored. Adding those two calculations we get about 11,300 people being reinstated in 2002. Of course I have assumed for arguement that about half of those who ceased publishing in 1999 and 2000 were DFd or DAd. This may be less or more but it seems about right. Then the matter of the new 15 minute provision. Let say conservatively that in each congregation 1 old/sick person in a care center resumed reporting time, this amounts to 11,000 publishers that were not part of the formula previously. These two figures are the anomalous numbers that account for the 3% increase. If you add the 22,300 to the 2,600 (the disparity between the rise in publishers and the number of baptised in 2002) you get about 25,000. This would be about average of those who ceased publishing for the past 3 years. About 50% of these hypothetically were DFd or DAd. (12,500 or 1.2%) So no there were no less people DFd or DAd in 2002. In fact that figure is greater than the 10 year average and greater than the number last year. It is appoximately the same as in 2001. It is corroborated by mutiplying it by 6 ( U.S. has 1/6th the publishers in the world) and getting 75,000. This is about the unofficial average of 70-80,000 disfellowshipped and dissassociated worldwide. And the printed average percentage of publishers DFd is about the same 1%. As long as I use the same ratios for each year and disregard the constants it is possible to approximate trends in statisics like these. Arguements otherwise are welcome but I think this explains why they show a 3% growth this year when the number of baptised actually greatly fell as it has been doing each year for years now.

Edited by - peacefulpete on 11 February 2003 0:17:5

48

If Time were running in reverse would we know it?

by D wiltshire in

if "time" is running backwards i dont see how that we would ever know, perhaps some clever physicist could devise an experiment to find out for sure.. some theoreticians have suggested the reason the arrow of time runs from past to future is tied intimately to the expansion of space.

since einstein special theory of relativity we have come to see that "time", space and speed are all relative.

we now more correctly speak of "space-time" instead of just space.

peacefulpete

What constitutes discovery? An explanation for the exponential repulsion obseved but not predicted by the previous models requires a new ingredient. To be sure antigravity is simply a word having been coined for its explanitory power. I have read only a few articles in the past 3 years but these have suggested it's wide acceptance much like it's equally mysterious brother dark matter. The point remains that the idea of a recoalecing universe has been largely abandoned.

23

making sense of report

by peacefulpete in

help....i have heard that the u.s. report in the jan 1 wt showed a 3% increase!

the past 15 years or so never saw growth more than 1%.

dis they change the way these figures are compiled resulting in exagerated numbers?

peacefulpete

Boy do I feel stupid. I completely forgot to factr in those reinstated and reativated. They will raise the publisher number but not be among those baptised. So being that an unusually high number of people became inactive in 1999 and 2000 and the average time disfellowshipped is about 2 years (an unofficial experience spawned average) a great number were reinstated in 2002. About 9 out of 10 disfellowshipped JWs return for more punishment So with this statistically predictable large number of reinstatements in 2002 coupled with the new 15 minute provision to reactivate inactive publishers I think I can account for the 10-15,000 mystery publishers without concluding that any fewer people were disfellowshipped last year than average. Sorry to have thought this out while typing.

23

making sense of report

by peacefulpete in

help....i have heard that the u.s. report in the jan 1 wt showed a 3% increase!

the past 15 years or so never saw growth more than 1%.

dis they change the way these figures are compiled resulting in exagerated numbers?

peacefulpete

Very interesting. The anomalous growth is due to very very low number of Disfelloshippings,disassociations and inactiity. Using my head I calculated the following approximate figures. In 1998 13,000 became inactive or were dfd. In 1999 36,000 became inactive or were dfd. In 2000 25,000 became inactive or were dfd. In 2001 18,000 became inactive or were dfd. In 2002 only about 2,600 became inactive or were dfd!!! I arrived at these numbers by simply comparing the rise in publishers with the number of baptised. The discrepency reflects the number of JWs that discontinued preaching during the year. So what does this mean??? It is hard to believe that in all the 11,000 congregations less than 2,600 became inactive publishers, let alone this number including all the DAd and DFd ones. When I was serving a couple years ago approximately 10,000 were DFd in U.S.each year. Are we seeing a new age??? Is disfellowshipping being phased out?

Edited by - peacefulpete on 10 February 2003 1:26:49

23

making sense of report

by peacefulpete in

help....i have heard that the u.s. report in the jan 1 wt showed a 3% increase!

the past 15 years or so never saw growth more than 1%.

dis they change the way these figures are compiled resulting in exagerated numbers?

peacefulpete

Help....I have heard that the U.S. report in the Jan 1 WT showed a 3% increase! How? The past 15 years or so never saw growth more than 1%. Usually less. Dis they change the way these figures are compiled resulting in exagerated numbers? I don't have a copy of the Magazine, so can anyone verify this and the number of baptised? Was there an adjustment to include inactive ones? Did the 15 minute rule result in 30,000 shutins reporting for first time? Any inpute welcome.

16

Who Really Rules the World???

by ARoarer in

remember the tract that had a picture of a big scary looking hand with a grip around the earth and the title "who really rules the world?

" i never really read all of the words in it until last night when i was looking at my mail.

my husband laughed and said you'll never guess who wrote you a letter.

peacefulpete

Fellas..It was recently pointed out that tha literary parallels between that of Buddah and Krishna with jesus are so many that if the authors of the older stories was alive he could have sued for plagerism. Buddah as tempted by the evil spirit after fasting for 47 days when about 30 years old and was offered world power. He declined and was blessed by the spirit world. The Hindu Zarathustra was likewise tempted in the wilderness. Give it up. This is literature. It teaches a moral, but not history.

48

If Time were running in reverse would we know it?

by D wiltshire in

if "time" is running backwards i dont see how that we would ever know, perhaps some clever physicist could devise an experiment to find out for sure.. some theoreticians have suggested the reason the arrow of time runs from past to future is tied intimately to the expansion of space.

since einstein special theory of relativity we have come to see that "time", space and speed are all relative.

we now more correctly speak of "space-time" instead of just space.

peacefulpete

Not much would be different in the effect and cause universe. Creationists would still be waiting for evidence of God to appear.

11

1914 Generation

by starfish422 in

was just reading on freeminds; was asked by a mormon poster on another board, to give a brief history of jw organization and i came across the following (here is the link: http://www.freeminds.org/history/5_eras.htm ):.

"finally throw out their "1914 generation" teaching with the october 15 and november 1st, 1995 issues of the watchtower, which was one of their main playing cards.

but simon says, "it's no thang," while older witnesses know better.

peacefulpete

AlanF..give me your input. Or was my wording that tangled? I tried but it is a large topic and I sought to be brief.