I would give both Scholar and JWs their 607 BCE date if they wanted it.
Even with that mistake, they could never reach 1914 CE with their calculations whatsoever. Why not? Because the problem is not the start date. The problem is counting the "seven times."
Jehovah's Witnesses use the principle of counting "a day for a year" (Nu 13:34; Ez 4:5-6) to count the "seven times" in order to get to 1914. But a Jewish year is not standard, and there is no mean year--meaning there is no average calculation you can make on what the Watchtower loves to call the "Biblical" year.
The Jewish Year
The last thing the Great Sanhedrin did before it was dissolved and the Jewish system came to an end in 425 CE was to introduce the now current Jewish calendar system now in use, produced by Hillel II.
The great court of the Jewish people was actually instituted not by the Jews themselves but by the Romans to help end the countless bickering over the religious infrastructure, including, among other things, the declaration of the beginning of the Jewish month and when holy days began and ended. Interestingly many Jewish sages predicted that the Roman armies would eventually come to attack the holy city prior to 70 CE, so some years before the Roman armies surrounded the city, the Great Sanhedrin was moved to Yavne where it stayed until after the fall of the Temple. Shortly afterward it was moved to Tiberias where it remained until it was disbanded and the Jewish system finally came to an end.
In an effort to to help the Diaspora continue to observe the Law and observe holy days, the Sanhedrin tried to send out news, but it would always be after the event. Since the Jewish calendar was a lunisolar calendar (meaning a lunar calendar that had to be adjusted with a leap year to keep in time with solar seasons) set and determined by study of the phases of the moon and harvest seasons in Israel, this became impossible now that the Jews were no longer allowed in their land. There also had to be a means of determining when events in the history of the Jewish people took place in the past, so a set year needed to be put in place that could by fixed astronomically with what is generally witnessed in the Promised Land.
Hillel II created such a calendar that matched these needs, taking into account how the agricultural settings of the Levant played a factor into determining when there would be a need to account for a leap year along with astronomical demands. The cycle is known as a Metonic cycle, and leap years add an entire month to the year seven times within a 19-year cycle, specifically in years 3, 6, 8, 11, 14, 17, and 19 of this cycle.
The Watchtower Calculation
Jehovah's Witnesses calculate 1914 from 607 BCE counting 7 "Biblical years" or "times," claiming that each “time” is made up of a “mean” or “average” Biblical year made up of 360 days.
Of course, that does not exist. Jewish calendar years fluctuate depending on whether it is a leap year or not. As the Metonic cycle developed by the Great Sanhedrin shows, on average, the Promised Land experienced a “leap year” about 7 times every 19 years.
This means the Biblical calendar did not have 360 days every year but about 390 in those specific times.
Watchtower publications tend to use two Scripture texts in Revelation, which are New Testament texts in Greek, to show that “7 times” equal 1,260 times and then ask people to “double” this. (Revelation 12:6,14) The Watchtower of November 1, 1986, p 6 explains in further detail:
How long were the “seven times,” or “appointed times of the nations,” to last? Plainly, they would extend much longer than 7 literal years of 360 days each (as Biblical years were calculated), which would amount to 2,520 days. Scriptural precedent indicates that we should substitute one year for each day. (See Numbers 14:34; Ezekiel 4:6; compare Revelation 12:6, 14.) Such a calculation would mean that the “seven times” lasted 2,520 years. If they began with Jerusalem’s destruction in 607 B.C.E., they would end in the year 1914 C.E.
But it is not 2,520 years from 607 BCE. There are more because of the Jewish leap years!
If we take into account the Great Sanhedrin way of calculating leap years, that is the Metonic cycle, that would be 928 additional years!
(For those of you into mathematical formulas, you divide the total number of years by the length of the Metonic cycle and multiply by the number of leap years per cycle, thus giving you the number of leap years missing in the 2,520 Biblical years.)
Now, because the original system was determined by human investigation and not by the Sanhedrin calendar system, let’s drop off 8 years from the total, giving us 920.
So, instead of 2,520 years from 607 BCE, Jehovah’s Witnesses should be counting 3,440 years from 607 BCE (or 3,448 if you want to be exact).
That difference of 920 or so years means that Jesus’ return would occur 900+ years after 1914 due to the Biblical leap years. (The year 2834 or 2842, give or take those 8 years that I played with.)
In other words, 1914 is the wrong date. That’s way too early.
Like in the movie Raiders of the Lost Ark, they are digging in the wrong place due to using a measuring stick of the wrong size.
According to their formula, the Gentile Times is not due to end until at least 2834. That means there is no Faithful and Discreet Slave yet or restorative “true religion,” or anyone to find this formula in the Scriptures yet.
A paradox, indeed.
