A small asteroid threat hyped to gloom-and-doom proportions by British media last week has left several U.S. scientists frustrated and fuming over what they call misleading and unethical stories that frightened readers unnecessarily. Meanwhile, a British reporter defends the stories, a British astronomer wonders what all the fuss is about and another suggests American scientists are too complacent about the danger.
The whole affair, over an asteroid that is almost certainly harmless, illustrates the stylistic ocean that separates American and British media and scientists' tactics in dealing with them.
Asteroid 2002 NT7 was discovered July 9 and last week was determined by NASA to have six chances in a millionof hitting Earth on Feb. 1, 2019. Using a different analysis method, European analysts gave the odds at 16-in-a-million. Both groups posted data about the asteroid's possible path, margins of error and odds of impact on web sites intended primarily for other scientists but also available to journalists and the public. At least three online British news outlets reported on Wednesday that the asteroid was on a collision course with Earth. Several leading British newspapers -- including The Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, The Independent -- followed on Thursday with similar stories topped by impending catastrophe.
In a few cases the headlines and story leads were flat wrong, several American scientists complain.
The asteroid was not and is not on a collision course, they say, but rather it had a very, very small chance of being on a collision course. A chance they were careful to point out would probably be reduced to zero with further observations.
Indeed, by Thursday the risk had dropped to 3.9-in-1-million and on Sunday NASA said the rock no longer posed any risk for the year 2019, though a minor risk remained for a date in 2060. That probability, too, is expected to go away with more observations.
Similar scares have cropped up in the past, and scientists had admitted some responsibility for not properly handling and qualifying the dissemination of their data. This time around, however, under an agreed-upon policy of full disclosure, the blame for any misinformation sits mostly on the shoulders of the media, they say.
Utter rubbish
Last Wednesday, the BBC's online news site ran this headline: "Space rock 'on collision course.'" The top of the story read: "An asteroid discovered just weeks ago has become the most threatening object yet detected in space. A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth and could strike the planet on 1 February, 2019 -- although the uncertainties are large."
"This is just utter rubbish," said Alan Harris, a researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) who focuses on asteroid risk. "The reader is told that NT7 is on a collision course, followed by an ambiguous 'uncertainties are large.' Uncertainty of what? Time? Place? Maybe the end won't come until Feb. 5, or maybe it will hit the BBC studios and not us."
If 2002 NT7 were to hit the BBC studios, it would wipe out a lot more than a few buildings. The rock is estimated to be 2 kilometers (1.4 miles) wide, big enough to disrupt the global climate and possibly threaten civilization as we know it.
The BBC story pointed this out, then went on to note that astronomers expected more observations to show that the asteroid is not on a collision course. Scientists remain frustrated, however, at finding these facts preceded by what they view as scary misinformation.
Defense of the story
"Complete nonsense." That's what David Whitehouse, the BBC News Online science editor and the writer of the story, said of Harris' criticism. Whitehouse stands by his story and calls it "completely accurate."
"We put the words 'on collision course' in the headline in parenthesis to point out its speculative nature. The first paragraph of the story says nothing about the collision," Whitehouse said Friday in an e-mail interview. "The fact is that 2002 NT7 had an impact solution on 1 Feb 2019."
Another story by the British Sky Broadcasting's Sky News web site provided even fewer qualifications. That story said the asteroid "is on a collision course with Earth", and lower down, that "more work needs to be done to chart the asteroid's exact path." Even further down in the story is a quote from an astronomer saying the asteroid "will probably miss us."
Neither article mentioned that the odds of an impact were small.
Reuters, a news agency that supplies articles to most major news outlets around the world (the story was posted on Yahoo) was more cautious in tone. The story, datelined from London, stated the low odds, but still said the asteroid was "apparently on a direct collision course with Earth."
In fact, astronomers never determined any actual collision course, nor even a possible one. Instead, they draw up a giant elliptical region of space that the asteroid is likely to pass through at given points of time in the future. If Earth happens to be within that ellipse, then there are slight odds of an impact until enough information is gathered that the ellipse shrinks and Earth falls out of the picture.
"I think that in the end it comes down the journalistic objectives, and, perhaps rarely, to journalistic integrity," said Steve Chesley of JPL, where much of the NASA asteroid search is coordinated. "It is unlikely that we will ever see an end to pieces like the one from Sky News."
Doom sells, and perhaps no one knows that better than members of the British media.
Make it sensational
Duncan Steel, an astronomer at the University of Salford in England, has worked for NASA, conducted asteroid searches from Australia, and written the book, "Rogue Asteroids and Doomsday Comets" (Wiley & Sons). He also writes popular asteroid articles for The Guardian newspaper.
Steel says asteroid stories have become so common that in his country they either make headlines or they're not used at all. Unless a reporter "makes it sensational," Steel said, "the reporter on, say, the BBC or Sky will not get the story carried: The editor will nix it. Ditto (especially) for the printed media."
Whitehouse, the BBC science editor, explains it this way:
"Here we have a culture shock -- look at newspaper headlines and the stories they refer to," Whitehouse said. "This is journalism, not a scientific report. We want people to be attracted to it and read it. We also want to tell them the real situation. We did both."
Doom-and-gloom may be more common to British media, but in today's Internet world, their stories are accessible everywhere and sometimes fuel articles by the U.S. media.
"Some American stories are just as dumb as the British," said the JPL's Harris. "I think a significant part of the problem is reading British press with an American mindset." Harris figures Americans tend to trust what they read more than Europeans, who know a misleading statement when they see one.
Even the venerable New York Times got caught up in the frenzy. On Friday (after Harris made the above comments) the Times ran an editorial titled "Rendezvous With an Asteroid," which began "Thank goodness! Another killer asteroid is on the way, just in time to take our minds off the stock market and foreign affairs."
The editorial was partly tongue-in-cheek, but it clearly spelled out the danger presented by 2002 NT7 and did not dwell long on the strong likelihood that the rock would miss Earth. Someone who had not read the Times' news story, which ran on the National section front the previous day, could've been left with the impression there was a fairly significant risk.
Perhaps The Times of London best put the whole situation into perspective. In a Thursday article that poked fun their competition while properly informing their own readers about the threat of the space rock called 2002 NT7: "If you believe this dire scenario, then you have rocks in your head."
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