Does this mean you given up on forecasting economic doom? And gone for 'Preparation H' instead?
Stock markets still fairly okay? Some signs of recovery? Prophecy of financial doom unlikely to take place? Predict nuclear war!
Okay, we have maybe four scenarios;
Backback Terrorist; A 'suitcase' bomb is detonated in a major city, possibly a few at the same time. This would either be a educational strike (what the attack on the WTC was in the eyes of the people who did it), or extortion - a demonstration some where small and isolated, and a deadline. Even if the entire supposed stock of missing 'backpack' or 'suitcase' nuclear bombs (technicaly nuclear demolition charges) were used in this, the total yield would be arounf 50 kilotonnes; a backpack nuke is about 1kt equivalent.
Thus, civilisation does not fall, but 50 cities have a small hole in them; we're not talking 5km wide craters and millions dead, we're talking about mass destruction of a quite defined area, and tens or hundreds of thoudsands of casualties at worst.
Obviously that would be dreadful, but life would go on for those who still had it.
Third world in-fighting; Nation a attacks nation b. At this point, the most likely one is India and Pakistan. Lots of people would die, but their limited capability (tens of warheads) would self-limit, and it is quite possible there would be world-wide backing for an educational nuclear strike on major troop concentrations of the participents by the Allied West, or a scheduled (time to evacuate) destruction of key cities. Civilisation does not end.
Armagedon No, not the one with Bruce, or the one with god. Israel being attacked on mass by Arab nations, and turning their nuclear arsenal on every Arab city in range. Self-limiting. Civilaisation does not end.
Strike by state A developing country might use nuclear weapons to strike at an enemy of greater size. Similar to 'Backpack Terrorist', but larger bombs. Messy, but civilaisation goes on.
Option five, MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) is no longer available. Unless Jehober launches by divine power the combined arsenals of China, Russia, USA, UK and France, it ain't going to happen.
In twenty years time there might be the possibility of the Allied West having to use nuclear weapons against the Chinese, but this is unlikely. COnventional war? Humans are still dumb enough for that, and as Bush has shown, it's good for business. Nuclear war is not good for business, and the Chinese are damn good business people; even if their ecomonic expansion is as great as some speculate, they don't want war.
Thus, I think trying to scaremonger about nuclear war is as duff as financial scaremongering. It's unlikely, there's nothing you can do about it, and if you're majorly affected you'll probably not be aware of it.
People living in glass paradigms shouldn't throw stones...
