I have not read through the entire thread, unfortunately, dear AKJ (peace to you!), so my response may be duplicative of some others. In response to your post title, I would have to say, no, the "Old Argument" does not hold water. As to your thread question (i.e., "no matter which numbers you use, doesn't this make you arrive at one of the following conclusions?'), I would also have to answer, no, it does not, and that, in fact, there is another choice: that the Most Holy One of Israel has never promised to solve the ills of THIS world... but only those of certain people IN this world. What people? Those with whom He has covenanted to do so... which COULD include anyone and everyone but, unfortunately, does not.
Even so, the trials, tribulations, troubles, problems, and concerns of those certain people are not removed/diverted entirely... nor has such ever been promised as to their lives in THIS world. There is much truth in my Lord's statement, "MY kingdom is NO part of THIS world." To try and hold God accountable, therefore, for the "problems" of and in this world is... well, silly. The "problems" of this world belong to its ruler... and so, you see little or no relief.
Again, one of the problems is that folks believe He is "their" God... because that is what "christianity" falsely teaches. Because they don't truly understand the covenants, either the one with Israel or the one that replaced it. The first covered fleshly Israel (for all Israel accepted it by their vow at Sinai)... and those who joined theirselves to that nation. The second covers those of fleshly Israel who accept it... and those who show themselves to be "Israel" by accepting it, as well.
Many of both groups forgot/forget, however, that "covenants" are contracts... legal agreements by means of which the parties AGREE to perform somehow. If one party fails to perform, the other is usually released from performance and the covenant can be voided. In both of His covenants with man, the Old and the New, the Most Holy One of Israel continued and continues to perform - it is man who keeps breaked HIS vow, HIS agreement as to HIS performance under either.
Please, dear ones - those of you who keep trying to hold the Most Holy One of Israel responsible for the care and well-being of ALL of mankind... you are wrong and out of line. IF you believe in God... such that you believe you have a right to find fault with His "performance", condescend to at least know the TERMS of His agreement TO perform on behalf of mankind: what that performance is, for whom, and under what circumstances. THEN proceed with your attempts (which you will find have no basis).
Until then, however, you are attempting to hold Him to a standard you wouldn't even accept being held to yourselves. There is NO WAY you would consider it right, fair, or even moral that your brother, neighbor, stranger, or even an enemy were allowed to drag YOU into court and bring a claim against YOU... when no agreement ever existed BETWEEN you.
If one is not in the [New] Covenant, which is ratified by the blood of Christ... the Most Holy One of Israel has NO obligation... toward such one OR such one's children/progeny. It is to such one(s) own god(s)... which includes anyone and anything other than Him that such one(s) put THEIR faith in... as well as, by default, the ruler OF this world... that they must look. And we can all see, by the statistics included in the OP just how that is going.
For those who would counter, "Well, He's GOD and so He MUST... because we are His creation!"... I offer that, no... there is NO law that says He MUST... other than His covenant. THAT is what binds the Most Holy One of Israel - THAT is the "document" that obligates Him to care... for HIS sheep. And it is necessary because it is man who turns away from Him... and not the other way around. So, He has left it TO man... to use his (man's) FREE WILL... to decide. For himself... and, if he chooses, his household.
Again, I bid you peace!
A slave of Christ,
SA