If Newt, the chameleon wins the nomination, then he will win the election.
If Mitt wins the nomination he will lose the election because the Right wing won't vote for him.
Newt knows how to connect with people. Next to Newt Obama is boring. They're both professors. Newt makes it interesting. Obama is a one trick pony.
Newt won't even have to move to the center. He has always been at the center. That is only a disadvantage when he is trying to get the nomination. In the field of Republican candidates Newt will be the last man standing.
The democrats will try to smear Newt about his personal life. The religious Republicans care about peoples personal lives but the independents could care less. Obama has angered his own party with needless compromise.
There is a high likelihood of a serious terror attack before the next election. It will be the Jihadist revenge on Obama for killing Ben Laden and use of drones.
If that happens the Republican candidate will win for sure - even if the economy turns around and is booming.