Cutback prediction

by slimboyfat 204 Replies latest members private

• 

  slimboyfat

  my answer is easy: i didnt say that. Well, not exactly. Thats what slim wants me to have said.... what i said was they would never let finical problems cause them to collapse (as slim has said in numerous threads )

  There seems to be a misunderstanding about the kind of conversation we are having here. I believe that Watchtower is in serious financial trouble and there is lots of evidence to indicate that. I am interested to hear other points of view, and especially to hear any evidence to the contrary. I am not interested in making you say something extreme in order to trap you. You did appear to say that JWs will definitely introduce tithing in previous posts. If that's not what you meant that's okay. I'm more interested in evidence for and against Watchtower's financial difficulty. Not who said what on this or that thread.

  As I've said before, it's difficult to predict how Watchtower collapse will play out, because we don't know how much resources they have on hand, and we don't know how skilfully they will manage decline. What I don't think is in reasonable doubt is that they have a serious financial problem that they are attempting to deal with at the moment.

  You asked me to make a specific prediction and I did. Maybe that was unwise. But I thought we were having a conversation and sharing ideas and evidence about Watchtower's current difficulties. Not that we were trading "prophecies" to catch each other out in future.
  
  
• 

  _Morpheus

  Im no stranger to the dangers of internet communication, where absent facial expression and tonal inflection, things are easily misunderstood. Often the sarcasm font is broken and things are taken more seriously than intended...

  that said, my interest in nailing down your view on a wt collapse time frame isnt an effort to “trap” you no do i feel you are trying to trap me.. for me its more of ‘put your money where your mouth is’ thing (and i dont mean that disrespectfully). In other words, its easy to start threads and see every little tweek in wt policy as impending doom and make bold predictions when they are vague but i question whether or not you REALLY believe it.... therefore i push to see if your willing to stand by your asserted belief of fincial ruin to the extent that you will put a time a frame on what you say is their imminent collapse.

  your willing, but your also willing to admit that they could find a way out. That tells me your not really counting them out. You, like me, seem to believe they will continue on... which is directly contradictory to half of what you have said. Im not trying to “trap” you so much as trying to see if you really believe what you or if this is simply what i have said it is from the begining: apostate mental masturbation.
• 

  Laika

  My cutback prediction is that they will get rid of the "Congregation bible study" next. I know a lot of JWs use tablets for this meeting now, but millions of others don't, which means millions of books need to be printed just for a 30 minute meeting segment. Then maybe they can get rid of book publishing all together apart from special orders for bible studies.
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  Doubting Bro

  Morph - LOL

  Laika - makes sense to me.
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  Alright, nobody knows. So here's my prediction:
  
  ALL PRINTING will cease in the very near future- within 5 years. The reprinting of the same mags over and over will be bullshit as they will have already printed them and shelved them in storage. Everything will be on a computer. And all staff that can be laid off will be laid off. Nothing new will come from the online literature. They will end all recruiting literature and try to offer a "message" of some kind. When they need more money, the public recruiting will change to "a warning that the ark is closing" and they will shoot themselves in the foot with a "2034 End of Days." You won't be able to find the "powers" of Watchtower in 2034 as they will say they have to go into hiding.
  
  Things will get crazy in 2035.
• 

  OrphanCrow

  OTWO: Things will get crazy in 2035.

  Damn. Just wait til 9595...then the s**t will hit the fan

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yesyhQkYrQM
• 

  waton

  husOn a broadcast in 2075, at a funeral service for one of the last overlappers, partaking since 1992, A Governing Body member drops this spirit directed smart bombshell. that

  Jesus evidently meant a symbolic 033 and or 1914 generation of trees of righteousness, living like the Sequoias, Bristlecone pines, Cedars of Lebanon., living in "HIS" day and now, on and on. quoting Isaiah 65.

  just trying to prove by ridicule that we are in the last days . of wt or world. (should have waited until tomorrow , Friday the 13st

  PS. forgot: Wt prides itself to have abandoned printed material and having preserved as many trees as possible to prove this prophecy to be sustained.
• 

  sparky1

  "I believe that Watchtower is in serious financial trouble and there is lots of evidence to indicate that. I am interested to hear other points of view , and especially to hear any evidence to the contrary." - Slimboyfat

  Without going into too much detail, it seems that things are progressing along very well in your neck of the woods. (Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you come under the British Branch?)

  The UK Charities Commission report on IBSA Income :

  8/2013 : 18,987,169.00 pound sterling gross receipts

  8/2014: 28,326,223.00 pound sterling gross receipts

  8/2015: 38,919,770.00 pound sterling gross receipts

  8/2016: 43,009,677.00 pound sterling receipts

  It seems like contributions are going up for the UK branch year over year.

  The UK Charities Commission report on IBSA Expenditures:

  8/2013: 17,801,760.00 pound sterling expenses

  8/2014: 18,709,197.00 pound sterling expenses

  8/2015: 23,227,596.00 pound sterling expenses

  8/2016: 18,679,157.00 pound sterling expenses

  It seems as though contributions are going up while expenses seem fairly consistent. Of course, this could be an anomaly and the UK Branch is just doing exceptionally well for the past few years. I suggest that WATCHTOWER is doing just fine financially and that the UK Branch numbers are a 'microcosmic' reflection of WATCHTOWERS financial position as a whole.
  
• 

  redvip2000

  It seems as though contributions are going up while expenses seem fairly consistent.

  But expenses are not consistent, because they went down almost 20% last year, and I bet this reduction in expenses is probably happening across the board everywhere, and will only increase in the next couple of years, especially as they decrease printing to almost nothing and consolidate operations once printing/shipping/logistics are not needed.

  Again, these numbers support the theory that their revenues are better now with the guilting of Jdrones into donating more per month, along with the expected reduction of expenses across the board.

  They are not lacking money folks, but this doesn't mean they don't want more of it.
• 

  shepherdless

  Sparky, firstly, the Britain branch has 3 closely related trusts; IBSA, WTBTS and Kingdom Hall Trust. To understand what is going on, you need to look at all 3 together.

  Secondly, each congregation is its own charity, and you can check the figures for each congregation. Each one of these show the donations going in, expenses going out, and payments upstream to “mother”.

  My reading of the IBSA and WTBTS accounts is that the donations are what the congregations pass up, not donations by individuals. It seems to me that the increase in recent times was partly the “new arrangements” where each congregation is paying a rent in perpetuity, and handing over of any amount in the congregation’s account over a certain level, and sales of Kingdom Halls.

  If you pick a typical congregation, you tend not to see any increase in donations. I was thinking of getting the figures from every congregation and adding them up to see how total donations by individuals compared to the figures quoted, but it was too big a task for me. My suspicion (and only a suspicion) is that the branch has squeezed everything it can out of the congregations, and can only do that once. This has given the branch a sugar hit. The branch has in turn sent a significant portion of the money to USA, as the accounts show.

  It looked a bit like something similar happened with the Aust and the Canadian accounts, as they had similar large increases in recent times.

  In short, I would not read anything into those headline figures.