Yes but if warwick need money they will not be bothered about selling kingdom halls off
Cutback prediction
by slimboyfat 204 Replies latest members private
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pepperheart
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_Morpheus
Please please people, calm down. Kh are indeed a necessity for the cult and will never be done away with. A Cultist shows up to the hall to be counted, seen and reindocrinated. Absent that the cult would quickly collapse. They are not in an isolated compound, as many small cults are. They have to show up to the kh as a cult local cult center for the above reasons. When somone goes missing its an obvious sogn that they are falling from cult favor.
What they will do is of course consolidate as they are already doing.
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slimboyfat
If it reaches a point where they either need to sell KHs or close the organisation down I don't know what they'll do. Maybe they'll take it as a sign it's all over. Or maybe come up with some "spiritual" explanation and struggle on. Presumably they would sell more branches and assembly halls before they start selling off KHs.
The documentation in Britain seems to indicate they have around £105 million in assets but are committed to spending a further £94 million on the relocation to Chelmsford. Plus only a small proportion of the £105 is readily available funds. (Does this actually include the value of their London properties? I think it might!) They say in the documents that they plan to fund the £94 million for Chelmsford from a mixture of reserves and from "ongoing donations".
On those figures, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario where Chelmsford costs more than anticipated, assets are difficult to reaslise, other expenses such as lawsuits arise, or contributions are lower then expected, or a combination of all of these, and Watchtower is in real trouble.
They could seriously downgrade Chelmsford or abandon it altogether. But they would still lose a ton of money anyway, not to mention lose the confidence of British JWs.
But the way they are going, I think that is inevitable anyway. It's just a matter of how it plays out.
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shepherdless
The documentation in Britain seems to indicate they have around £105 million in assets but are committed to spending a further £94 million on the relocation to Chelmsford. Plus only a small proportion of the £105 is readily available funds. (Does this actually include the value of their London properties? I think it might!) They say in the documents that they plan to fund the £94 million for Chelmsford from a mixture of reserves and from "ongoing donations".
Yes, but in addition to the £10 million in cash held by IBSA, there is nearly £60 million in cash in WTBTS. Plus if things get really bad, there are other assets to sell. For example, each of those assembly halls referred to earlier in this thread had a book value of about £5 million; with one worth probably a lot more and the other so under-utilised it should probably be sold anyway.
Of course, all these financials are over 12 months out of date.
I think they could scrape through a moderate cost overrun, with their dignity intact (just). Surely, the project will be scaled down, though.
I personally wouldn’t think collapse is imminent, from these figures. The “Britain” figures make me think they have major risks that must be keeping them all awake at night. It should be survivable with good management (not a “given” for this lot). In the meantime, the membership is slowly decreasing in the background. But then again, there must be more serious issues afoot elsewhere, given the cutbacks announced at the annual meeting.
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slimboyfat
Shepherdless thanks for your input, as always very illuminating.
So if I understand correctly, in Britain, Watchtower has readily available funds of £10 million with IBSA, £60 million with the Watch Tower Society, and a much smaller amount with the Kingdom Hall Fund.
And they anticipate spending another £94 million on the relocation to Chelmsford, in addition to what they've already spent.
So that means they intend to spend all their available cash on Chelmsford, plus an additional £24 million that they have not yet collected in donations or realised from the sale of assets.
I would say that should be some cause for serious concern.
Because what we have to remember is that the current level of cash that is available (£70 million) resulted from an unprecedented boost in 2015/6 when local congregations sent their surpluses to the branch. That was a one off financial windfall that can't be repeated. And yet it still leaves Watchtower with a shortfall in meeting the cost of their plans.
Where is the extra money supposed to come from? Did they anticipate that the new congregation payment arrangement would result in permanently higher contributions from congregations? This remains to be seen, but the trend of the past couple of years would seem to indicate a probable return to 2015 levels before long. Who knows, it may even fall below the previous level. (Likely in my view, because of the removal of local autonomy combined with decreasing membership numbers)
And remember that £24 million is the apparent shortfall they need to make up, on the assumption that Watchtower will have zero cash in reserve after Chelmsford. Is it really tenable for the organisation to operate with no reserve cash? In reality they need somewhat more than £24 million extra in donations and asset sales in order to complete Chelmsford and keep the organisation functioning.
So what can they do?
You say they can sell a few assembly halls. Maybe so. Maybe there are a couple more than necessary. I don't know. But are they going to go beyond that and start selling assembly halls and KHs that are currently viable? That would be an extremely desperate measure. Because how could they justify selling assembly halls and KHs that are in use, in order to find the construction of a branch that will do no printing and apparently serve little useful function. I guess it would save face. But then, would it really save face, when JWs begin to ask, really what's the point?
What else can they do? They can downscale Chelmsford. Which they have apparently already done to some extent. But how much of the £94 million would a reduction in scope actually acheive in saving? Much of the cost is apparently associated with road construction, including a roundabout. So they may abandon the printery, games courts, and some residential buildings, and yet still not save a tremendous amount from the target figure. What an absolute nightmare all round.
What else can they do? Abandoning Chelmsford altogether has got to be an option on the table. They could sell the site, get back some of their money, and open a small office in London. Or keep one of the buildings they've still got in London and sell the rest. It would be a climbdown of epic proportions, but if they have no other choice?
It may seem absurd to abandon Chelmsford so late. But on the flip side, completing Chelmsford also looks pretty absurd! The reasons offered for the project in 2015 were 1) increased magazine production, and 2) greater role of the British branch. Neither of these apply any longer. Magazines are being reduced dramatically, and remaining printing is moving to Germany. Completing Chelmsford in these new circumstances seems pretty incredible.
On top of all this, there is the threat of financial loss through litigation, which is discussed in the documents as a major area of risk for the organisation. This could throw a whole other spanner into the works above and beyond everything else. Again, what a nightmare.
Frankly I'm surprised they're not displaying even greater signs of panic.
It will be very interesting to see what happens!
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slimboyfat
Also interesting to note that IBSA has 300 volunteeers and the Watch Tower Society of Britain has 50 volunteers. This is even lower that the latest bethelite figure for Britain. What was the peak, over 600? And didn't they anticipate possibly over 1000 at Chelmsford at one stage? I seem to remember them aiming to accommodate a maximum of 1200.
It will be very interesting to compare this with the volunteer numbers in 2020 if/when the projected relocation is complete.
Plus there is another issue that may throw yet another spanner in the works. What if Watchtower's financial difficulties elsewhere are even worse than in Britain? Might the Governing Body require Britain to send money to help out? If it's a matter of survival they may choose, not only to abandon Chelmsford, but practically close the branch in Britain altogether.
What other options have Watchtower got? Declare a new date for Armageddon and/or demand JWs send their savings to keep the organisation functioning?
Ingratiate themselves with superwealthy JWs? Are there any billionaire JWs they could call upon? And what perks or favours could they offer in return? Influence over policy, doctrine, or just time with leaders at the headquarters?
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moreconfusedthanever
This week's service meeting has a part on donating.
As long as they still have ones who believe every word that comes down from the top, they will be able to guilt these ones into sending money whether they can afford it or not. My pensioner mother for instance.
These ones will continue to be in awe of how well the FDS are caring for the sheep by taking care of the "have nots" with money provided by the "have a little".
It will never occur to them to check the financial information available freely on the internet because Jehovah and therefore the FDS do not tell lies.
One of the broadcasts available is about the need for 25 million dollars to help those effected by the recent disasters.
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slimboyfat
Stephen Lett made an unprecedented call for extra donations in 2015 and a few months later reported that contributions had increased by a measly 15% for two months only.
If that's true then it's an absolutely dismal response. The GB must have been tearing their hair out. No wonder Samuel Herd's dramatic cutback announcement followed shortly after.
JWs may be true believers, but even that doesn't seem to prompt them to contribute great amounts to Watchtower.
The 2015 appeal having largely failed, what could Watchtower reasonably try next? An even more dramatic announcement:
"We really, really, super do have a lot more going out than we have coming in, brothers, please, please help, HELP!"
Or: "Look brothers, unless you send serious donations, including some of your savings, we are going to have to shut up shop completely. Don't make us do that."
A more dramatic announcement could possibly work. After all if British JWs all sent Watchtower, say £1000 each, that would solve their money problems for the foreseeable future. On average JWs could afford it if they wanted. But they simply don't donate that kind of money. (My congregation donated less than £500 last month in total!) They never have done and it's doubtful, on recent evidence, that appeals will encourage them to do so.
Plus there is a danger in making too dramatic an announcement. Some JWs might think, "I really need to help God's organisation!" Others might conclude, "is this really God's organisation if they are in such dire straits? I'm not going to throw good money after bad!"
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_Morpheus
Id think that one of your points is easy for them to play up on, that being with reduced mag production the facility is no longer needed or needed on the scale planed. Time will tell but given the continued moves toward trimming fat it seems likely that it will be downscaled
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shepherdless
You are making some very good points, sbf. I don’t have a counter-point at the moment. They really should have cancelled or dramatically reduced the Chelmsford project 2 years ago.
I have a suspicion (not based on any inside info) that the way the borg is structured, the decision making processes are slow, cumbersome, and easily deadlocked, causing management to be “behind the curve” (ie reacting to changed circumstances rather than anticipating them and making decisions accordingly). I suspect the Chelmsford project is a symptom of their management style.