Interesting thread. I appreciate all the information. IMHO, things seem to be getting ready to decline. That is, the numbers (lies or not) don't indicate a current decline. However, I have to concur with what has been stated repeatedly:
(1) The average age of JWs is climbing and the number of seniors is startling, especially when you look at the average age of elders compared to MSs. When I was a girl, an MS was invariably a very young man--maybe even in his teens. Now ( from what I see when I very occasionally go), it's not uncommon to see MSs in their 30's, 40's or even older. They're supposed to be the "feeder stock" or "new blood" for the elder body!
(2) The quality of both JWs and publications has dramatically declined. I look at my own nephews and neices, all of whom were raised by uber-zealous parents. They are all now in their 20's. How many are or have ever regular pioneered? Exactly three out of nine. Moreover, it was their express intention to pioneer for exactly one year, as a kind of duty, before moving on to full-time work. One of them is now working 60+ hours /week for a big multinational corp as a financial analyst (she went to univ.), the other has married and he and his wife work full-time and have a nice, comfy lifestyle, not so different than the average "worldly" young couple. The third pioneered for a few years before moving in with a guy and getting df'd. (She's now reinstated, poor thing). I think those stats, while anecdotal, are highly representative of young witnesses.
Moreover, the general quality of the publications is so mundane and intellectually flabby as to be an embarassment to any JW with an IQ over room temperature. The reading level is about Grade 6, as is the complexity of content. The Organization is aiming low and reaping what they're sowing, which may or may not lead to a decline. Regardless, it will lead to a dramatic shift in demographics as the zealous, fire-in-the-belly old timers die off and are increasingly replaced by non-thinking, weekend Witnesses who dutifully go to meetings and expend their Saturday mornings driving around in expensive SUVs, doing absentee return-visits and frequenting Starbucks.