Even sociologists have been predicting JW collapse. But it has not happened yet:
The antidote to the myth that JWs are declining
by slimboyfat 153 Replies latest watchtower bible
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slimboyfat
Steve if you are no longer talking about a "continuing decrease in active publishers" then I guess we no longer disagree on anything much. But I would suggest it's you who shifted ground not me. Not that it matters much. I just thought it somewhat interesting that the facts contradict the common notion that JWs are already decreasing.
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Joey Jo-Jo
I have seen increases and decreases, the thing is it varies from country to country, and there is a correlation between low developed countries and growth.
However, it is not surprising that the communication highway has changed everything to the point that youth are forced to be baptised and for any form of contradictory statement is cause for shunning, even those who are not baptised.
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sir82
Let's face it, if there's a choice between not being able to submit any time at all, or submitting 4 x 15 mins,
the elders will say submit 4 x 15 mins per month.
No they will not.
They will tell the "non-approved" publisher that they are not "approved" to turn in only 15 minutes of time and "lovingly encourage" them to "get at least one hour" in.
The CO would certainly come down extraordinarily hard on the elders if "40%" of the congregation is reporting 15 minutes per month.
This is coming from (my) first hand experience.
In my congregation we have probably a dozen or so age-70+ members. The only "15 minute" publisher is a literally out-of-her-mind senile 90 year old, incapable of speech or feeding or bathing herself, whose caretakers pin a Watchtower to her blouse as they wheel her around her nursing home.
People on this site frequently harp on the "15 minute" rule. In practice, it applies only to the bed-ridden, the senile, and the nearly-comatose.
Elders are trained to lay on the guilt trip. "If Sister Iron Lung can pioneer while flat on her back, what's your excuse? Maybe your pneumonia is only walking pneumonia. Even if not, surely you can write letters for 1 hour a month."
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Cadellin
Interesting thread. I appreciate all the information. IMHO, things seem to be getting ready to decline. That is, the numbers (lies or not) don't indicate a current decline. However, I have to concur with what has been stated repeatedly:
(1) The average age of JWs is climbing and the number of seniors is startling, especially when you look at the average age of elders compared to MSs. When I was a girl, an MS was invariably a very young man--maybe even in his teens. Now ( from what I see when I very occasionally go), it's not uncommon to see MSs in their 30's, 40's or even older. They're supposed to be the "feeder stock" or "new blood" for the elder body!
(2) The quality of both JWs and publications has dramatically declined. I look at my own nephews and neices, all of whom were raised by uber-zealous parents. They are all now in their 20's. How many are or have ever regular pioneered? Exactly three out of nine. Moreover, it was their express intention to pioneer for exactly one year, as a kind of duty, before moving on to full-time work. One of them is now working 60+ hours /week for a big multinational corp as a financial analyst (she went to univ.), the other has married and he and his wife work full-time and have a nice, comfy lifestyle, not so different than the average "worldly" young couple. The third pioneered for a few years before moving in with a guy and getting df'd. (She's now reinstated, poor thing). I think those stats, while anecdotal, are highly representative of young witnesses.
Moreover, the general quality of the publications is so mundane and intellectually flabby as to be an embarassment to any JW with an IQ over room temperature. The reading level is about Grade 6, as is the complexity of content. The Organization is aiming low and reaping what they're sowing, which may or may not lead to a decline. Regardless, it will lead to a dramatic shift in demographics as the zealous, fire-in-the-belly old timers die off and are increasingly replaced by non-thinking, weekend Witnesses who dutifully go to meetings and expend their Saturday mornings driving around in expensive SUVs, doing absentee return-visits and frequenting Starbucks.
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Laika
I was looking at the figures on Jwfacts website. The numbers of people leaving has stayed pretty much static since the 90s but as the overall number of publishers has increased this means a smaller percentage of people are leaving than ever before. So the society has actually got better at keeping its members during the Internet age! Baptisms as a percentage of membership has also been decreasing each year, so the door to door preaching work has at least become less effective. On the 15 minute preaching, in Britain telephone and letter witnessing is illegal so I imagine it's easier to meet the requirements for it here than in the USA.
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Splash
Where I think there is a large and invisible increase, is in those who are waking up in the congs.
Someone earlier made a comment about there no longer being any 'fire' in the publishers. I can see this.
In the 1980's I saw zeal, this turned into a waiting attitude in the 1990's. Now I'm seeing complacency.
Splash.
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wisdomfrombelow
Didn't they change the allowance for how to count time when studying with your unbaptized children when they instituted the Family worship night? If both parents can count up to 1 hour per week that's already 8 hours per month (for the parents). We all know pioneer's can get credit working at quick builds. Are those counted among their "hours" in the annual tally? Since they are now offering tracts as the literature offer, the presentation has gotten much easier hence not as much stress when going door to door? They can do a lot of things that will make the number of hours reported look higher and have a different substance than before.
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sir82
Both parents can count time on study with children - true.
Pioneer credit for hours spent on quick builds - true. However, the way it's supposed to work is that quick-build build hours don't go out the count of hours sent to the Society, but they do go on the pioneer's time card.
"Special" campaigns with simplified presentations of invitations / tracts - true. Currently a minimum of 6-7 weeks / year is spent on this, maybe up to 10 or 11 if there is "special" Kingdom News campaign (like I think is scheduled for later this year).
Oh, and one other thing you forgot to mention - 30 hour auxiliary pioneer months, up to 4 times a year.
They are definitely making it easier to get hours.
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slimboyfat
But the fact remains the number of hours/publisher is historically high, and the pioneers/publisher is the highest ever.