The WTS is so dependent on the numbers to prove they are the "onnly true religion with God's backing" they simply can't ever afford to report a decline. They never will!!!! The only hope is for individual members to look around and see people leaving the congregation or the combining of congregations. They will only see that if they want to. But then again, the WTS has an explanation for that too, it simply is further proof of Satan attacking God's people as prophesied, its a win-win for the devious bastards.
The antidote to the myth that JWs are declining
by slimboyfat 153 Replies latest watchtower bible
-
-
Terry
Donny: Great post Terry as usual. Your line "As Franz grew more senile and began having conversations with his own shoes" really gave me a good laugh for the day.
I snipped my comment and simply started another thread so as to not hijack this one. Thanks.
-
mariu
I agree that lots of Ex-JWs tend to be caught up in wishful thinking. "They must see what I see" - just like a newly converted JW doesn't understand why the rest of the world won't convert on the spot because it's obviously the truth, isn't it? I don't expect a collapse of the WTS any time soon.
However:
- In most of the developed world, JWs have been stagnating, and baptism rates (and baptism-per-preaching-hour) have dropped quite significantly compared to 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago. That's just not sustainable in the long run.
- Worldwide growth has slowed down. A mere 2% worldwide increase isn't exactly a grand success.
- Counting criteria for active publishers (and pioneers) have been changed and artificially boosted the numbers.
- My personal pet statistic: look at Eastern Europe. After a brief upsurge when the Eastern Bloc (and similar states) crumbled, it has been stagnating for years just like Western/Northern/Southern Europe, but at much lower levels. You have countries there with 1 publisher to 500 or even 1000 or 2000 people and zero growth, or perhaps one or two percent growth. That's quite remarkable: usually these "new markets" will have explosive (relative) growth in the beginning that slowly tapers off until it reaches a saturation around perhaps 1 : 300 or so. But that's just not happening. They're stalling. And note that these countries are still struggling with all kinds of problems, so you'd think they should be fertile ground for JWs. Even Greece, certainly a place where you'd be excused for feeling apocalyptic these days, is stagnating.
A similar pattern can already be seen in large, densely populated areas of Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, ...). They should be growing like crazy there, right? They don't.
They do have a problem, and not just a temporary one. But it's a big organisation, people don't change their lives en masse quickly, so of course there's still a lot of momentum that keeps the train rolling.
In summary, if you're an ex-JW hoping for some kind of big exodus so that your family finally drops out, don't hold your breath. But one cannot deny that today's JWs are nowhere near the explosively growing, aggressively expanding, highly visible "new religion" they used to be just some decades ago.
-
gingerbread
I agree that the overall numbers (if that is what's really important) show remarkable growth over the past 50 years. But perhaps the numbers of JW's is not the issue. The concern for JW leadership is retention of a faithful membership.
The last great influx of the general public conversions was in the late 1960's and early 1970's. These folks have children and grandchildren 'in the truth'. They are also at the age of retirement or older. The fastest growth within the organization is aging/retired ones. Or, that's how it appears if one 'scans' the local kingdom hall and assembly/convention population. What it really shows is a failure to retain the born-in Witness. In the United States. this is the reality of the organization's population. I hear it's reflected in Europe as well.
The organization is desperate to stop the apathy and disillusionment of it's members. These factors are their real enemy.
-
sir82
The number of new baptisms is trending downward year over year, and has been doing so for the past 15 years or so. In some years there is a slight uptick, but in general the trend is downward.
15+ years ago there were 350,000+ per year getting baptized, nowadays the count is about 250,000 per year.
As the population of JWs continues to age, and fewer and fewer new ones are added, it is inevitable (if trends continue) that the total count will decrease.
The 2nd derivative of the growth curve is negative - the top of the "hump" is approaching, if not already arrived at.
-
Londo111
Given current trends, I believe a slow decline will begin to occur in a few years. My eyes are mostly focused on the US numbers…perhaps a bit selfish of me because that is where I reside…but I suspect the US numbers will start to decline in a couple of years, even as they are in Japan and Germany.
Growth in the US, in English-speaking congregations, is coming from children of JW parents. And in the long term, with two out of three leaving, a decline is inevitable. There is an ever increasing decline of elders. And from what I’ve seen, the number of elders in a congregation outnumber ministerial servants. It is not uncommon to see an elder carrying mikes. The pressures upon elders are not decreasing. Eventually something will break.
The Governing Body gave themselves a promotion, declaring themselves alone as the “Slave”, and ratcheting up the hate speech toward former members. As problems mount, they are trying to retain as much control as they can. Their grasp is getting tighter for a reason.
Two things can forestall a decline:
(1) a disaster that they can point to as an immanent sign of the End (like 9/11)
(2) A lightening of the load, a lessening of the expectations of performance, “lower” standards. Perhaps reform.
-
wasblind
So how many extra JWs are there since you stopped reporting time?____Slimboyfat
The youth has always been the future.
The youth and the internet are the beginnin' of the end of what the WTS once was
Example, When you look at all the pics that were taken durin' the Civil rights movement
it was the young that stood up. Many of the older ones were too set in their ways to change
It was college students who demanded to be served at lunch counters. And protested in the streets
It was the youth who were put into segregrated schools . It was three young freedom riders
that lost there lives
Keep your eye on the youth. Trust this
.
.
-
DATA-DOG
I agree that most are just going through the motions. Even higher-ups are just going through more motions. My Elder friend said that he didn't know how much more of this world he could take. How many more Elders feel that way? I am a born-in, and I have ZERO confidence in what the WTBTS teaches. I am there in body only. How many are like me, or my Elder friend?
They are many who are one scandal away away from losing all confidence. If the GB were gone tomorrow and meetings stopped, and CA's and DC's stopped, if the reminders ( brainwashing ) stopped, many would swiftly lose confidence IMO. Those who would stay are the ones who have a reputation or have no other life without the WTBTS. They would be in charge of the Elderly and sick who fill the arena floors, the ones with no place else to go.
They may not become extinct, but they could take a huge hit in their numbers. I really think that the myth of the WTBTS being GOD's one channel is the cement that holds it together. At least it was for me. Once that belief is proven false, the scales fall off. I think that could happen for many given the right circumstances.
-
Terry
As JW's become more and more risk-avoiding the fire in the belly will cool.
It is the risk that ignites the cause in the first place.
Look at Islam and the young people strapping dynamite vests on their body; their life is a trade-in
for a better model on the other side of Paradise.
JW's use to carry canes in large assemblies to knock back the furious reactionaries who infiltrated meetings
to scream at Rutherford.
When the WT used radio to foment hatred against Big Business (Jews), Catholics and clergy--Rutherford
was at the forefront engendering the young folk to prove themselves by being equally rabid.
Today--just getting a person under 21 to get up and go out in service is a miracle of persuasion!
-
Shador
See, the thing is, any large growth tends to come from 3rd world places. Desperate people grasping at the (false) hope that paradise, which is coming Soon™, will solve all their problems.
The apathy and bleed-off of the born-ins, along with the gradual death of all the old-timers, is happening in large part in first-world countries (USA, Europe, etc.).
The problem becomes economic. If support from the rich countries dries up, they can't fund their massive printing operation. Boom. Collapse.
They seem to be trying to solve this but putting stuff online. Problem is, folks in grass and mud huts with chickens running in the yard don't have internet and likely never will.