by slimboyfat 153 Replies latest watchtower bible
What I see is a demographic shift that may explain at least the growth in the US. This is the explosion of Spanish speaking congregations. I've seen them pop up not only in areas where they traditionally have been already but in Oklahoma as well.
In my opinion, white JW's are either declining or at best are completely stagnant.
iCeltic, there must be about 2,000,000 extra JWs since you left, and around 8000 in the UK.
mariu, JWs are certainly growing much slower than they used to, there is no doubt about that. But they are still growing faster than the general population and are doing better than many mainstream churches. Whether that amounts to success I don't know, but it certainly isn't decline. Not yet anyway. Maybe decline will come one day, but its been a long time coming. Mariu, if you look at Russia what I find interesting is that JWs are still increasing while the population of Russia itself goes down. So the ratios in Eastern Europe can improve for JWs without necessarily increasing, just because the population is going down. If JWs have a problem then it is merely one of slowing growth at this point. In the context of most churches declining rapidly in the western world it's the sort of "problem" that most other churches would be pleased to have.
Refriedtruth, indeed I think there was a redefinition of publisher around 2003 when they introduced the 15 minute rule. That would have had an effect on the increase for a year or two, but does not explain continued growth ten years later. No arguments here about growth not proving JWs are the true religion.
stillin, I think you're definitely right the quality has gone down. Hours per publisher is down, and they have trouble recruiting MSs and elders.
Phizzy, who knows decline may still come. 2014 is bound to be a blow and the reduction in the meetings is probably still having an effect. Maybe financial pressures will also take their toll before any numerical decrease starts to materialise.
Well Terry, I'd like to think so, but how come this long heralded decease just never seems to materialise?
Jeremiah, they have reported declines, worldwide in the late 1970s, and in Britain and other countries for single years in the past couple of decades.
Sir82, I think what may be happening is that fewer born in JWs are getting baptised, but more of those who do get baptised are sticking with it. In any case the lower baptism figures have arguably already translated into slower growth. They have not produced actual decline.
Londo11, that's what I've been hearing on this forum for like forever: decline is just around the corner, any day now, I can see all the signs. It's just like JWs having faith that Armageddon will come soon. Always promised but never happens.
The Kingdom Hall in this town just closed, even though the town population is stable. Two families just moved away. In a population of over 4,000, two Witnesses.
I see that also in my area to Sooner. And that's a sad fact for the minorities
Jehovah's Witnesses come to your door offerin' a simple harmless Bible study
And they are there, to con you out of the things that didn't come easy for minorities
Like the right to vote and the choice of higher learnin'
It's all happens in a timely process, that slowly reels you in
JWs are still increasing even in most developing countries
I don't know about even in most developing countries, religions have always flourished where there is poverty. Ever heard the term rice Christians? I thought there was huge increase in Eastern Europe, am I wrong? They are sadly mistaken if they think this religion is going to be giving them handouts any time soon but perhaps they haven't worked that out yet.
I can bet any new person that comes in does not have access to the internet.
the big problem is a doomsday cult needs an end date.. they have spent them all .. so how do they create the urgency..
they people who run the propaganda printing company are in a catch 22 in this regard.. they can't just keep saying soon .. the last special GB talk I went to in 1984 .. It's highlight was, after a laundry list of how bad the world is, " the govening body sees no way this system will last past the turn of century!'
end date .... everyone in audience ooh ahh.. urgency inserted ..
Now they say I don't care if it doesn't come in my life time.. I just want to worship 8 men who run a printing company .. till I die!! hardy a reason to go out in service..
What we have to keep in mind is that everything has changed with the advent of the internet.......... we now know all of the WT’s dirty little secret's, their insane flip flops, scandals etc. When someone gets discouraged and goes on the internet....... BAM! It's spelled out for them. Once read it sticks. What took me 3 years to figure out in the 1960's can now be found in one hour.
Everything has changed with the increase of modern scientific knowledge. Our knowledge of natural science, medicine, the solar system etc. has advanced greatly in the past decades. While the JW construct stays the same.
Everything has changed with the advent of educational opportunities. Even pioneers can sit at home on the internet and get a degree.
The JW model is from the 19th century........ it's totally inappropriate for modern times. Their timeline is now failing. It's doctrines and ever changing new light are a joke. It's shunning policy is obscene as is their stance on blood. Real time is killing them.
The growth rate in 2011-2012 was 1.6% which is very close to the world wide death rate. Over the last 13 years their growth rate has averaged 2%. At every turn they have inflicted wounds on themselves. If they droped shunning they would easily loose 10% a year.
With 67% of born-ins leaving, with being the least educated (in the USA) and with the poorest followers (Pew survey USA). And no provisions for their aging follower's, there is little to no reason to joining them. I will not be around to see it but a lot of these wacko religions will go the way of the Shakers in the next 100 years.
"People want to be told what to do so badly that they'll listen to anyone." - Don Draper
Here's how i view the growth of groups like JWs and Pentecostals in developing countries (btw Pentecostalism is growing more rapidly than JWism is in the developing world):
1) Life in these countries is miserable for the vast majority, beyond what we care to know or imagine. There's about a billion haves and about 6 billion have-nots in the world.
2) JWism and Pentecostalism bring a measure of joy and comfort, in their own weird ways, to otherwise joyless and comfortless lives.
3) The old-time churches don't offer the near the same levels of involvement, identity, and certainty that JWs and Pentecostals do, and have much more imperialist baggage associated with them.
4) Few people in developing lands are literate enough or have enough access to information to be able to see through the shallow propaganda of JW publications.
I don't see JWism going away anytime soon. And yes, that is very sad.
But they are still growing faster than the general population and are doing better than many mainstream churches. Whether that amounts to success I don't know, but it certainly isn't decline.
Agreed, but one problem with the comparison here is that it's apples and oranges. "Mainstream churches" count active and passive members in one figure, and there's usually not a great commitment necessary to call yourself a Catholic (or stop doing so), for instance. So it's rather obvious that this number will be more volatile. The number of JW "publishers" on the other hand can be expected to be a lot more stable: it's harder to get in and harder to get out of that group.
Not yet anyway. Maybe decline will come one day, but its been a long time coming. Mariu, if you look at Russia what I find interesting is that JWs are still increasing while the population of Russia itself goes down. So the ratios in Eastern Europe can improve for JWs without necessarily increasing, just because the population is going down.
Well. As of yb 2012, Russia had 1 publisher in 848 people and a whopping growth of one percent. If Russia's population were halved, they would get in the market share range of Western Europe, but that's not all too likely unless a few rusty nuclear warheads go off at the same time. If, on the other hand, the JWs keep growing at their current pace of 1% p.a., it will take them about 70 years to double their number.
I don't argue with your general point: that there's not a world-wide decline as hoped by many. But I do think it's a quite significant development that there are many places in the world that would seem like excellent territory for fast growth, and yet almost nothing happens there. A great example is the former Yugoslavia: they had a war going on there not long ago, there's still economic trouble and more or less pronounced ethnic tensions, most citizens are at least nominally Christian (that tends to be a good preparation for JW preaching), JWs are free to operate everywhere in the area, they're far from the usual market share saturation points - and still, there's no growth overall. For quite a few years now.
So even where they should be able to march in and lure thousands into the baptism pools like back in the 1970s, they utterly fail to do so. My point is that the JWs are no longer seen as a better alternative to other churches or "the world" in general. They're not even controversial any more. Nobody cares very much about them these days, as Terry put it so nicely " the fire in the belly" is cooling off.
(Since you mentioned Britain, do you think the increase there might be drawn from immigrants mostly? Because that seems to be the case for Norway, for instance.)
