SBF's views on the "state" of JW membership are always welcome - even though I sharply diasagree with him. He reminds us about the close correlation between "wishful thinking" (i.e., wanting the Watchtower to decline in its influence and so result in fewer joining) and the actual statistics. I could not agree more. Often, we start on a personally held premise and develop our arguments from there. The fact that many here learnt this selective-attention "trick" from the religion of our birth and upbringing is compelling but hardly fully explanatory. Who can forget the delighted, enthusiastic commentary from both the platform and publications about the dwindling attendance-rates of the "Churches of Christendom" and the loudly trumpeted expansion of the organization. Wishful thinking is no respecter of religious affiliation or non-affiliation as the case may be.
So, SBF's periodic reminding us of the strong tendency of humans in general to turn wishful thinking into fact is a necessary part of any debate on this topic.
My views on the "state" of JW membership, as with SBF's, have been well-aired on this forum. A third "view" would be, let's just see what happens - if anything - as time passes.
My main arguments are as follows:
Baptisms are consistently trending downwards worldwide. At District Conventions, the ratio of attendees to baptismal candidates is strikingly huge. Gone are the days when hundreds lined up for baptism
It takes on average 6 to 10 years for average numbers of publishers to consistently approach peak numbers (that is a significant often overlooked change in growth patterns; in the JW growth heyday - 1950s - 1980s - average numbers of publishers easily outstripped peak numbers within 2 years, often within 1 year. The United Kingdom and New Zealand are two of many countries where the lag between peak and average are most clearly demonstrated
Most growth of JWs nowadays comes from born-ins. This is another striking change: In the heyday, most growth came from door-to-door "converts.
The revolving door syndrome operates healthily in the organization. In this regard, it is similar to many millenialist groups such as Adventists, Christadelphians and Mormons where back-sliding status becomes the norm.
There are more concrete occurences of Kingdom Hall closures or mergers. Is this significant? Hard to say - but it is a change not before happening.
In countries with substantial migrant populations, JWs tend to do better. In New Zealand (as I have often reported) English-speaking congregations struggle to get attendances - especially during the week. By sharp constrast, immigrant-language congregations thrive and show lots of growth (relative to the much larger English-speaking congregations.
The "benchmark" for reporting hours continues to be reduced. It is easier to "get away" with one or two hours per month than ever before (I draw upon my own experience here).
Memorial attendance last year showed over 300,000 fewer than the year before. Okay, I anticipate SBF being able to explain this away. The best strategy I guess is to await this year's attendance which SBF has made varying predictions about.
There are also clear-cut instances of decline (Japan) and of persistent stagnation (Denmark has hovered around 13,000 to 14,000 since the 1980s). There are more countries see-sawing between +1% 0% and -1% - hardly earth-shaking, but representing a clear change in growth patterns.
On the question of whether the organization will face a mass exodus in the next few years, I am closer to SBF's views than others who predict such an exodus. Whatever the figures show, something will remain unchanged: The Watchtower will always have more of a problem with membership-apathy than membership-apostasy.